Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Verdict
Manly were beaten last week but I am backing them to get back to winning ways by covering a -4.5 line. They have won their last three games at home and this can follow a low scoring trend.
- Manly have won their last 3 games at 4 Pines Park.
- Only 2 of Manly's last 9 games have gone Over 51.5.
- The Sea Eagles have conceded just 15.6 points per game across their last 5.
- Tolu Koula has been cleared to play and gives Manly the best early-strike matchup on the edge.
Head to Head Stats
South Sydney have won eight of their last 10 games against Manly, but the most recent meeting went the Sea Eagles' way 30-12 at Brookvale last season.
Across the last five meetings, Souths have a 3-2 record. The difference this week is venue and current defensive form, with Manly winning their last three games at 4 Pines Park.
Manly Sea Eagles Form - Winning Run Ended
Manly's attack has enough polish to cover this number, but the defensive lift is the real reason to trust them. They have conceded 15.6 points per game across their last 5 and have been far more settled at home.
Kieran Foran's side still has to manage without Tom Trbojevic, but Clayton Faulalo has scored 5 tries in his last 6 games and Lehi Hopoate gives them speed on the other edge. With Koula cleared and Olakau'atu back, Manly have more than enough threats to put Souths under pressure.
The line is short enough that Manly do not need a blowout. A controlled 24-16 or 28-18 type of game gets the job done and keeps the Under alive.
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Three Defeats In Four
South Sydney have the top-end attack to worry Manly, but they are not at full strength. Latrell Mitchell remains sidelined and the Rabbitohs have lost three of their last four games.
The returning players help. David Fifita is back from a hamstring injury, Brandon Smith returns from a calf injury and Campbell Graham is named in the centres. That improves the side, but it also asks a lot of players coming straight back into a physical road game.
Alex Johnston is still the right leg for the tryscorer multi. He remains one of the best finishers in the NRL and Souths only need one clean left-edge shift for that leg to hit.