Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
Newcastle Knights have been given a +4.5 start on the line and I like the odds for them to stay within that. They have won four straight matches and can cover in a low-scoring game that sees under 49.5 points.
- The Knights have won 4 matches in a row.
- Newcastle have conceded an average of 14 points in their last 3 matches.
- Melbourne has scored 22 points or less in 7 of their last 9 matches.
- Greg Marzhew has scored 10 tries in his last 4 games.
Head to Head
Melbourne holds a 3-2 advantage across the last five meetings and has won the past two encounters by 18 and eight points respectively.
The Storm were comfortable 32-14 winners when the sides met last season and have traditionally dominated this matchup, winning 32 of 49 meetings overall.
Interestingly, recent meetings have generally been lower-scoring affairs. Four of the last six clashes have produced 48 points or fewer, which aligns with the projected total sitting below the current market.
Melbourne Storm Form - Storm Turning Things Around
The Storm have quietly turned their season around after a disastrous seven-game losing streak. Craig Bellamy's side has now won three of its last four matches and remains within striking distance of the top eight despite sitting below its usual standards.
Last week's 18-4 win over the Roosters highlighted Melbourne's defensive improvement. The Storm completed their first 21 sets of the game and restricted one of the league's best attacks to a single try.
Sua Fa'alogo was sensational, producing a career-best performance with 278 running metres, three linebreaks and 10 tackle busts.
Harry Grant and Cameron Munster also backed up strongly from Origin duties and were key contributors in the victory.
Newcastle Knights Form - Hot Knights Win 4 Straight
Newcastle has become one of the hottest teams in the competition, winning four consecutive matches to surge back into finals contention.
The Knights have scored 28, 36, 44 and 42 points during their winning streak and are averaging 32.4 points per game across their last five outings. Dylan Brown has added another dimension to the attack, while Kalyn Ponga continues to be the side's most influential player despite the spotlight following his Origin appearance.
The emergence of Dylan Lucas has been another major positive. The damaging back-rower scored twice against Parramatta and now has five tries in his last four games, giving Newcastle genuine strike power on an edge.