Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
It's a key battle between the top five rivals and I'm expecting a close game. It could go either way, so opt for the TriBet and either team by 1-12 points.
- Four of Cronulla’s last five matches have finished below the game total.
- Three of Newcastle’s past four games have gone Under.
- Newcastle’s last six matches have all been decided by six points or fewer.
- Sione Katoa has scored six tries in his last three games.
Head to Head
Cronulla have dominated the recent series, winning six of their last seven matches against Newcastle. They won both meetings in 2025 by 20 points or more, and the Knights have not won at Ocean Protect Stadium since 2014.
The overall record remains much tighter, with Newcastle holding a 25-24 advantage across 49 meetings since 1998. The current model expects another competitive contest, projecting Cronulla by 4.1 points rather than a repeat of their recent comfortable victories.
Cronulla Sharks Form - Six Wins In Seven
Cronulla enter Round 20 in outstanding form, with six wins from their last seven matches lifting them into fourth place.
Their 66-0 demolition of the Dolphins was their most complete performance of the season, with the Sharks scoring 11 tries and keeping an opponent scoreless for the first time since 2024.
Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall controlled the game from start to finish, combining for seven try assists, while Blayke Brailey and Addin Fonua-Blake continue to provide the platform through the middle.
The Sharks complete at 82 per cent for the season and rank among the competition’s best teams for both points scored and defensive efficiency.
The main question is whether last week’s result says more about Cronulla or the depleted Dolphins. The Sharks have built much of their recent form against bottom-nine opposition, and their 27-8 loss to the Roosters remains a reminder that stronger teams can disrupt their attack.
Newcastle Knights Form - Road Form A Worry
Newcastle have lost only twice since Round 8, but almost every game has been decided in the closing stages.
Their last six matches have all finished with margins of six points or fewer, including last week’s 26-24 defeat to South Sydney after they nearly completed a remarkable comeback from 20 points down.
Kalyn Ponga was instrumental in that fightback and remains the key to Newcastle’s chances. The return of Bradman Best gives the Knights another powerful attacking option, while Fletcher Sharpe moves back to five-eighth alongside Dylan Brown.
The concern is their road form. Newcastle have won only two of their last six matches away from home and have not tasted victory at Cronulla’s home ground since 2014.
Their lower completion rate and reliance on Ponga to create attacking opportunities could also make it difficult to keep pace if the Sharks control possession.