Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Verdict
A tight game is predicted with under 48.5 points the best bet in the capital in Round 20. I'm taking the Rabbitohs to edge it with a 1-12 margin for South Sydney backed.
- South Sydney rank fourth for points and first for linebreaks against a Raiders defence sitting 13th for points allowed.
- Cody Walker's return gives the Rabbitohs more polish and control after they nearly blew a 20-point lead against Newcastle last week.
- Canberra's 40-16 win over Canterbury was impressive, but it came from a dominant field-position game that is harder to repeat against a more dangerous Souths edge attack.
- Tallis Duncan is not priced like a headline tryscorer, but he is named at centre, crossed last week and showed enough ball-running threat to be live again.
Head to Head Stats
Canberra have won the last five games between these sides, so there is no shortage of head-to-head history pointing to the Raiders.
The problem is that South Sydney's current attacking profile is better than that recent record suggests, and the Rabbitohs bring the more dangerous strike into this matchup.
The linebreak numbers are the key. South Sydney rank first in the NRL for linebreaks, while Canberra are 12th for linebreaks conceded and 13th for points allowed.
That gives the Rabbitohs a path to a narrow upset without needing the game to turn into a full shootout.
Canberra Raiders Form - Back To Form
Canberra snapped back into form with a 40-16 win over Canterbury, and it was a proper ambush early.
The Raiders led 22-0 at halftime, dominated possession and territory, and had Ethan Sanders and Owen Pattie controlling the game with their kicking.
The season-long concern is still defensive reliability. Canberra have averaged 19.2 points scored and 23.0 conceded over their last five, and their defensive rankings leave room for South Sydney to find points even if the Raiders start well again.
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Bunnies Hang On
South Sydney beat Newcastle 26-24 last week, but the way they got there was messy.
They led 26-6 with 15 minutes to play before conceding three tries in seven minutes, which is exactly why Walker's return is important.
The upside is obvious. The Rabbitohs were lethal down their right edge in the first half, Duncan scored before halftime, and he later broke through midfield to set up Jye Gray.
Souths have averaged 26.8 points across their last five, and they carry more attacking threat than Canberra if the game stays close.