Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers Verdict
Wests Tigers have been given a +6.5 line start and I like them to stay within that number. The Tigers can also keep Canterbury under 24.5 points in a relatively low scoring game.
- Canterbury rank 16th for points and now lose Stephen Crichton from the starting side, forcing another reshuffle in an already clunky spine.
- The Bulldogs have averaged only 17.8 points over their last five
- Wests Tigers were poor on the scoreboard last week, but they completed 22 of 23 first-half sets and showed enough structure to stay in the fight for longer than the final margin suggested.
- Adam Doueihi has scored in three of his last five games and carries more running threat from halfback than his tryscorer price usually reflects.
Head to Head Stats
Canterbury have won three of the last five against Wests Tigers, but the Tigers won the most recent meeting 22-16 earlier this season.
This has not been a matchup where either side has consistently separated itself, which makes the 6.5 start appealing.
The Bulldogs have the stronger defensive profile, but their attack is the concern. Canterbury rank 16th for points and 10th for linebreaks, and that is before accounting for another playmaking change.
Canterbury Bulldogs Form - Struggling For Points
Canterbury were never really in the contest against Canberra last week, trailing 22-0 at halftime and eventually losing 40-16.
The first-half numbers told the story, with Canberra controlling possession and field position while the Bulldogs struggled to build pressure.
The bigger concern is now the playmaking reshuffle. Canterbury have averaged just 17.8 points over their last five.
With Crichton out of the starting side they need O'Sullivan to settle quickly next to Lachie Galvin. That makes the Bulldogs Under 24.5 a strong angle.
Wests Tigers Form - Execution Not Good Enough
Wests Tigers lost 32-6 to the Warriors, but there were some details in the performance that make them more interesting as underdogs than the scoreboard suggests.
They completed 22 of 23 sets in the first half and were still only down 14-6 at the break, even though their first linebreak did not arrive until the 79th minute.
That tells the story of their season. The Tigers can get through sets and put themselves in games, but the execution has not been good enough.
Doueihi's grubber created their only try last week, and with him at halfback again they have enough attacking involvement from the halves to cover this number.