Match Preview
Germany’s form has improved drastically since their wake-up loss to Serbia in the group stage, winning all of their matches since apart from the defeat to Denmark. France, meanwhile, looked very shaky defensively in their recent loss to Spain, so I am sticking with the Germans to cover a +2.5 handicap in this decisive clash.
Germany One Result Away from the Semifinals
Germany enter the final round with a clear scenario, as a win or a draw against France would be enough to secure a spot in the European Championship 2026 semifinals. They currently sit in second place with six points.
After suffering a shock 30-27 defeat to Serbia in the group stage, the Germans responded strongly with a 34-32 win over Spain to advance to the Main Round with two points.
They then took a massive step toward qualification with back-to-back victories, first edging Norway 30-28 with Marko Grgic stealing the spotlight by scoring seven goals, before following that up with a 32-30 win over Portugal.
Germany’s winning run came to an end on Monday, when they struggled badly against Denmark’s defense and suffered a 31-26 defeat against the reigning world and Olympic champions.
France Struggling for Consistency in the Main Round
France enjoyed a flawless group-stage run, winning all three matches and advancing with the maximum number of points, but their overall performances in the Main Round have been far less convincing.
The reigning European champions opened the second phase with a somewhat expected 32-29 defeat to hosts Denmark, a game in which they led at halftime and remained competitive deep into the second half.
They bounced back last week with a sensational attacking display against Portugal, crushing them 46-38 to stay alive in the semifinal race. France landed 22 of their first 23 shot attempts in that match, with Ludovic Fabregas topping the scoring charts with six goals.
However, France were heavy favorites on Monday against already eliminated Spain and suffered a shocking 36-32 defeat, largely due to disastrous first-half defending that saw them concede 20 goals.