State of Origin Game 3 Verdict
It is all tied up a 1-1 for the series and Queensland are favourites to take out Game 3 at home. It's hard to go past the Maroons at Suncorp and I think they can cover the line of -6.5 points.
An open game should lead to the total going over 44.5 points and Selwyn Cobbo and Mark Nawaqanitawase are the plays in the tryscorer markets.
- QLD had won 8 straight deciders at Suncorp prior to NSW claiming the most recent in 2024.
- 58% of NRL games this season have finished with 13+ Margins pointing to teams giving up if the lead blooms.
- Mark Nawaqanitawase scored twice in his Game 2 debut and is a clear target for both kicks and shape plays.
- Selwyn Cobbo scored 3 tries in Game 2 and has scored 10 tries in 12 games for the Dolphins this season.
Get our first tryscorer tips and man of the match tips for Origin 3.
Head to Head
Queensland have won three of the last four series dating back to 2022. They secured the 2025 Series by winning Game 3 on the road in Sydney but lost the most recent decider in Brisbane back in 2024.
The Maroons lead the overall series H2H 25-17 with 2 series being drawn. QLD also hold an advantage in game wins 72-61 with 2 games ending in a draw.
QLD have won 17 of 27 Game 3’s played at Suncorp Stadium including 8 in a row prior to NSW winning in 2024, QLD have won 39 of 62 Origin games played at Suncorp Stadium.
QLD Maroons Form
QLD weathered an early Blues onslaught to take out Game 2 in Melbourne and set up a classic sudden death Game 3 at Suncorp. The 44-24 scoreline was the first time QLD have cracked 40 pts since Game 3 of the 2001 series and was the highest ever score from a QLD team in Origin history.
They suffered from a lack of possession early but were stringent in completing their sets, getting to 95% in the 80 minutes to wrestle momentum and run away with the game.
The Maroons forwards dominated yardage 1678-1362 but Selwyn Cobbo played his best ever Origin game with 3 tries, 3 linebreaks and 199 Run Metres from 20 runs.
QLD Maroons Team News
QLD have been forced into one change and have opted for a second. Lindsay Collins picked up a concussion playing for the Roosters last week and has been replaced in the team by Patrick Carrigan who returns from injury.
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki has been replaced by Jeremiah Nanai who has been tearing it up for North Queensland recently, scoring twice in their win over the Panthers in Rd 17.
NSW Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
NSW Blues Form
The Blues made a bunch of changes after winning Game 1 but still got smashed 44-24 at the MCG in Game 2.
Once again they have made a series of changes in the hope of bringing some bigger bodies and sudden death experience to the team looking to salvage a series win.
The Blues scored first and even led 12-8 at the half in Game 2 but were completely overrun in the second half as Queensland evened out possession and completed at an exceptional 95% rate over the course of the game.
NSW still had 12 errors and conceded 5 penalties which gifted the Maroons valuable field position and momentum.
NSW Blues Team News
Laurie Daley and the Blues selection panel have once again astounded their follower base. Blues stalwart Brian To’o has been sensationally dropped in favour of Jack Bostock, the choice provides more height against the QLD aerial attack but has left a sour taste with many Blues supporters.
Bradman Best also comes into the team in the centres, pushing Tolu Koula to the reserves while Kotoni Staggs has been dropped for Stephen Crichton. Mark Nawaqanitawase retains his wing position as does Mitch Moses in the halves.
Dylan Lucas has been left out with Liam Martin having now played enough NRL games to reach the level of match fitness needed for Origin.
Blayke Brailey returns to the team following a broken arm which pushes Api Koroisau out of the squad, Victor Radley also moves to the reserves with the Blues recalling Haumole Olakau’atu.