South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
South Sydney are hit with absentees and I'm taking them on as a result. The value play is to take the Knights to go over their 22.5 team total and grab the extra value on them to win by a 1-12 point margin.
- Newcastle have won their last four games against South Sydney.
- South Sydney have a major spine and backline reshuffle.
- Newcastle have scored 21.0 points per game across their last five, but their attack has more upside with Ponga and Best named.
- Greg Marzhew scored three tries against South Sydney earlier this season.
Head to Head Stats
Newcastle have won four of the last five meetings between these clubs, including a 42-38 win earlier this season.
South Sydney's only win in that stretch came back in 2022, and the Knights have repeatedly found ways to trouble the Rabbitohs' edge defence.
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Top 8 Struggles
South Sydney have averaged 25.2 points scored and 22.4 conceded across their last five, but those numbers do not fully capture the disruption in this week's team list.
Walker's suspension forces a new halves combination, Dufty comes in at fullback and Duncan moves into the centres.
There is still attacking talent here, but the Rabbitohs are being asked to fit a lot of pieces together against a top-four opponent.
They have also lost five of their last six games against top-eight opposition, which makes the market respect difficult to trust.
Newcastle Knights Form - 4 Wins In 5
Newcastle have won four of their last five games and continue to find ways to close tight contests.
They have averaged 21.0 points scored and 18.4 conceded in that run, but the team list looks stronger if Ponga and Best back up as named.
The Knights are not blowing teams away, which is why the 1-12 margin appeals.
Their attack still has enough strike to clear 22.5, especially with Marzhew, Dominic Young, Ponga and Best all capable of creating points from limited chances.