New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Verdict
In what is the game of the round, New Zealand Warriors are tipped to put up a strong fight at home to Penrith Panthers. I like the Warriors with a +5.5 start and for the game to stay under the 40.5 points mark.
- The Warriors have covered in all 3 games as underdogs of 5 pts or more this season, and the previous meeting with Penrith was decided by only 2 pts.
- Penrith have won 11 of the last 13 between these clubs, but 4 of the last 6 meetings have stayed under 40 pts and this shapes as another grind.
- New Zealand are unchanged in the starting side after a 42-6 win over Gold Coast where they completed 19 of 21 sets in the first half.
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira scored last week and also created a try with a left-edge break, giving him the exact strike profile needed in a low-scoring game.
Head to Head Stats
Penrith have won four of the last five against the Warriors and 11 of the last 13 overall, but the Round 13 meeting this season finished 20-18.
That result is the key reference point for this bet, because New Zealand are much better suited to staying inside 5.5 than the broader head-to-head record suggests.
The total trend is just as important. Four of the last six meetings have stayed under 40 points, and both teams are top-five defensive sides in the core rankings.
New Zealand Warriors Form - Ruthless Wahs
The Warriors were ruthless against the Titans last week, winning 42-6 after building the game on power, discipline and speed.
They led 26-6 at halftime, had 57% of possession and completed 19 of 21 sets in the opening 40 minutes.
That is the kind of start that makes them live against Penrith. Khan-Pereira scored in the 11th minute, then split the left edge and passed inside for Harris-Tavita to score, while Leka Halasima also crossed playing at centre.
Across their last five, the Warriors have averaged 24.8 points scored and only 13.6 conceded.
Penrith Panthers Form - Panthers Dominant
Penrith were just as dominant last week, beating Canberra 42-18 in Mudgee and keeping their lead at the top of the ladder.
The Panthers scored five straight tries in the first half, with Nathan Cleary and Jack Cogger controlling the game and Tom Jenkins scoring another double.
The Panthers have averaged 25.2 points scored and 18.0 conceded across their last five, but the defence is still the identity.
They rank first for points allowed and linebreaks conceded, which is why the under makes sense even with both teams arriving off big attacking performances.