Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
A tight tussle is in store between two closely matches rivals with under 45.5 points the best bet. Newcastle Knights are value to edge the victory having won two of the last three matches between these sides at GIO Stadium.
- Newcastle had played in 8 straight games decided by 6 pts or less before last week's win, which makes the 1-12 margin the right way to attack this matchup.
- The Knights have won 2 of their last 3 games at GIO Stadium and can lean on a defence that just kept Brisbane scoreless in the first half.
- Four of the last 5 games between Canberra and Newcastle have stayed under 45.5 points, and both sides are comfortable grinding through field position.
- Greg Marzhew scored twice last week and has six tries in his last five games against the Raiders.
Head to Head Stats
Canberra have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, but Newcastle won 32-12 earlier this season and have had success at GIO Stadium.
The last five meetings have produced mixed results, but four of the last five have stayed under this week's total.
Canberra Raiders Form - Run Ended
Canberra were in strong form before last week, winning 4 straight and scoring 154 points across that run.
Penrith brought them back down with a 42-18 loss, but even in that defeat the Raiders had moments early and led 6-0 through Matthew Timoko.
The issue was control. Canberra conceded five straight tries in the first half and trailed 30-6 at the break, then still found some late attack through Matty Nicholson and Ethan Strange.
Their last-five scoring average is 34.4, but that is inflated by a couple of big wins and this Knights defence is a different type of test.
Newcastle Knights Form - Back To Life
Newcastle's 30-6 win over Brisbane was the circuit-breaker they needed after three straight losses by a combined five points.
The Knights kept Brisbane scoreless in the first half, turned defence into attack, and closed the game with Fletcher Sharpe's 50-metre untouched try.
Marzhew scored twice, Sharpe also scored twice, and Kalyn Ponga was heavily involved after returning from his quad injury.
Across their last five the Knights have averaged 21.4 points scored and 17.4 conceded, which is the exact profile for a narrow road win rather than a shootout.