Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles Verdict
Manly have found a new lease on life under Kieran Foran and they are value as underdogs. Cronulla have named all three Origin representatives but I like Manly to cover as 1.5 underdogs with Lehi Hopoate tipped in the tryscorer markets.
- Road Underdogs are covering at a 54.8% rate this season and winning outright at a 40% rate compared to a 31% rate over the past 7 seasons.
- There have been 5 Golden Point games so far this season, the most over the first 11 rounds since 2023.
- Lehi Hopoate has scored 9 tries across 10 games this season and has scored in 7 straight games.
- The Sharks have conceded the majority of opposition tries down their edges this season and are allowing an average of 36 pts per game to opponents in losses.
Head to Head
Cronulla have won seven of the last 10 regular season matchups between these teams including three in a row and six of the last seven. Interestingly the only loss in that period came at Shark Park.
Both games last season and four of the last six have gone Under the Game Total while winning margins have been split between tight contests and blowouts.
Cronulla Sharks Form - Back From The Bye
The Sharks enjoyed their second bye of the season last weekend and went 2-2 since their first bye. Their most recent outing was a 38-16 victory over the Bulldogs.
Cronulla have been scoring well this season. They have scored 30+ pts in 6 of 10 games but like the Cronulla we have grown to love over the past few years, they have struggled to win and put points on the board when they are pressured by the opposition and need to come from behind.
Both Blayke Brailey, Briton Nikora and Addin Fonua-Blake have been named to back up from Origin on a two day turnaround so keep an eye on late mail as any outs can dramatically affect outcomes.
Manly Sea Eagles Form - 3 Game Win Streak
Manly extended their win streak to three last weekend with a tight 12-10 victory over the Titans. It was the first game where they have failed to cover during the Fozball era and the expectation pre-game was that they would put a cricket score on the Titans.
They still completed at 86% and had the majority of possession with 38 tackles in the Gold Coast 20m zone but failed to convert in a scrappy contest.
It might not be worth reading too much into the performance of a team that has been riding a wave of momentum and needed to come back down to earth sometime. The real test will be this weekend against a Sharks team possibly missing key players.