Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons Verdict
Brisbane Broncos have leaked points in the last three games, but the defence should get an easier time of things against a points-shy St George attack. The Dragons to score less than 16.5 points in a one-sided game is the best bet.
- St George Illawarra have not cleared 16.5 points in 5 straight games and have only done it 3 times this season.
- The Dragons have averaged 11.2 points across their last 5 games in the workbook.
- Brisbane's market Team Total is 36.5, which keeps Adam Reynolds 12+ points firmly in play if the Broncos convert pressure into tries.
- Josiah Karapani has scored 3 tries this season and all 3 have come in the first half.
Head to Head Stats
The Dragons have won the last two meetings 30-26, but both of those games required more attacking punch than this current Dragons side has shown.
They have also won six of the last eight against the Broncos with seven of those eight all going over the Game Total.
Brisbane Broncos Form - Bye To Revitalise Broncos
Brisbane needed the bye. The Broncos have lost three straight and conceded 112 points across that run, which is the only real hesitation with any Dragons Under.
The team news is much better this week. Payne Haas is set to return from a knee injury for his first game since Round 7, Brendan Piakura is also named to return and Jack Gosiewski has been named on the bench after concussion.
The Broncos also have Kotoni Staggs, Ezra Mam, Gehamat Shibasaki and Pat Carrigan named to back up from Origin One. If those players are cleared, Brisbane have the strike and forward platform to win this game comfortably even if the total tries stay under 9.5.
St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Winless Dragons
The Dragons are still searching for their first win of the season and the attack remains the problem. They have scored 11.2 points per game across their last five and have not cleared 16.5 in five straight.
There are some positive team-list notes. Moses Suli returns from a back injury and Jacob Liddle is good to go after a hamstring issue, while Damien Cook has been named despite an ankle concern last week.
That said, Hayden Buchanan, Jaydn Su'A and Christian Tuipulotu are all out, and the Dragons still profile as a team that struggles to sustain pressure for 80 minutes. They can compete for patches, but turning that into 17+ points at Suncorp is a different task.