Turkey's inefficiency contributed to their elimination from the 2026 World Cup, and now they have converted just one of their 50 shots across three UEFA Nations League games. I believe it's finally time for their strikers to be more focused, so BTTS is the standout pick.
Key Stats
- Italy have seen BTTS in their last 2 matches.
- Italy have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 8 matches against Turkey.
Italy Unbeaten Against Turkey
This is going to be the 16th time these two nations lock horns. Italy won on ten occasions, while four clashes ended without a winner.
Azzurri Stepped Up After Opening Defeat
Italy are having mixed results so far in the UEFA Nations League 2026 under Roberto Mancini, accumulating four points in the first three rounds.
Azzurri started this campaign with a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Belgium, but then bounced back and earned a convincing 4-1 victory against Turkey in Izmir with Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi and Michael Kayode finding the net in the first half, while Francesco Pio Esposito finished the job later.
Italy were labelled underdogs on Friday against France but looked good on the pitch, claiming well-deserved 1-1 draw thanks to Bastoni's second half equalizer. They ended this clash with 1.54-1.25 expected goals and 14-18 shots.
Turkey off to a Disastrous Start
Turkey's chances of suffering relegation to the Nations League B division are high after losing all three games so far, while Vincenzo Montella is under big pressure to keep his job.
The Crescent Stars were beaten in the first round by France 1-0 where they probably deserved more, while their defending was terrible in the follow up clash, losing to Italy 4-1 (Baris Yilmaz scored a consolation goal).
Turkey were nowhere close to stopping the slide on Friday, suffering another convincing defeat to Belgium 3-0. Denis Gul and Merih Demiral missed big chances to score here, Turkey ending the clash with 1.38 xG and 23 shots.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Italy (4-3-3) Gianluigi Donnarumma; Michael Kayode, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi; Antonio Vergara, Pio Esposito, Moise Kean
Giacomo Raspadori is definitely ruled out for this clash due to an injury, so Moise Kean is expected to start.
Giacomo Raspadori is definitely ruled out for this clash due to an injury, so Moise Kean is expected to start.
Turkey (3-4-2-1) Ugurcan Cakir; Ozan Kabak, Merih Demiral, Zeki Celik; Ferdi Kadioglu, Salih Ozcan, Ismail Yuksek, Eren Elmali; Yunus Akgun, Kerem Akturkoglu; Serdar Gul
Turkey have arrived with significant absences in attacking areas, as Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz serve one-match bans. Hakan Calhanoglu was out of contention due to an injury.
Turkey have arrived with significant absences in attacking areas, as Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz serve one-match bans. Hakan Calhanoglu was out of contention due to an injury.