Champions League Matchday 1 Preview - Four Games, Outright Picks & Top Goalscorer Value
The Champions League is back, and Matchday 1 has given us plenty to work with.
We put four of Tuesday's games on the clock for the latest Free Tips Football video before turning to the outright markets: who wins the Champions League, and who finishes as the competition's top goalscorer?
Here are our picks.
Porto v Manchester City - Trust City's Firepower
Porto have started strongly, winning five straight Primeira Liga games while scoring 11 and conceding just once. The problem is their record against Manchester City. Porto have never beaten City competitively, losing three of four previous meetings.
City's European away form is less convincing, with just two wins in their last nine Champions League away games, but Erling Haaland arrives having just scored his 300th career goal.
Ryan is taking Manchester City to win 2-1, while Jeremy is predicting a 1-1 draw.
Pick: Manchester City to Win (1.65 @ Vave)
Real Madrid v Inter - Goals at the Bernabéu
José Mourinho's first Champions League game back in charge of Real Madrid comes against the club he led to the trophy in 2010. Madrid enter after a 1-0 home defeat to Real Betis and with a depleted midfield. Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler and Bernardo Silva are suspended, while Aurélien Tchouaméni is a doubt.
Inter, meanwhile, have taken nine points from nine in Serie A, including an injury-time win over Napoli. History favours Madrid, but their midfield issues make backing them less appealing.
Jeremy likes Both Teams to Score, while Ryan has gone further with a 2-0 Inter win.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (1.50 @ BetGoodWin)
Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal - Expect Goals
This could be the game for goals.
Dortmund's last two matches have both produced more than 4.5 goals, while Villarreal are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have conceded 10 across their last five games.
Serhou Guirassy also comes into the game in form. He scored and assisted as Dortmund came from two down to beat Hoffenheim 3-2 and has scored in each of his last two matches.
Picks: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals. (1.72 @ Bet365)
Serhou Guirassy Anytime Goalscorer.
Over 3.5 Goals is another option for those wanting a bigger price.
Lille v Real Betis - Back the Hosts
This is the first competitive meeting between Lille and Real Betis, and it's probably the game where we're most comfortable picking a winner. Lille are unbeaten in three and come into Matchday 1 following a 1-0 victory at Toulouse. Olivier Giroud has also started well with one goal and two assists in three games.
Betis have been harder to read. They followed a 5-2 defeat to Levante with a surprise 1-0 win at Real Madrid, but travel to France with several injury concerns.
Lille have home advantage, stronger recent form and considerably more Champions League experience.
Pick: Lille to Win (2.20 @ Bet365)
Who Wins the Champions League?
The statistical case points towards Arsenal.
The model discussed on the show gives Arsenal a 21.2% chance of winning the Champions League, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich at 19.9%. Manchester City are next at 12.0%, followed by PSG at 7.7%, Barcelona at 7.0% and Real Madrid at 5.1%.
Arsenal went eight from eight during last season's league phase, and their defence remains a huge part of the appeal.
Ryan is backing Arsenal to go all the way while Jeremy has gone for the storyline instead - José Mourinho to win the Champions League with Real Madrid.
Ryan's Pick: Arsenal
Jeremy's Pick: Real Madrid
Champions League Top Goalscorer - Haaland Over Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé is the 4.50 favourite after scoring 15 Champions League goals last season, but the price is difficult to love.
Odds of 4.50 imply roughly a 22% probability, while the model discussed above gives Real Madrid only a 5.1% chance of winning the competition.
Our value alternative is Erling Haaland at 9.00
Manchester City's difficult league-phase schedule could actually help here. A finish between ninth and 24th would put City into the playoff round, potentially giving Haaland two extra matches.
City are also good enough to make a deep run even if they miss the top eight. For an elite scorer capable of producing multi-goal games, that combination makes 9.00 appealing.
Top Goalscorer Value Pick: Erling Haaland @ 9.00
The 67.00 Longshot – Serhou Guirassy
For something considerably bigger, Serhou Guirassy at 67.00 stands out.
Guirassy has already proven himself at this level, scoring 13 Champions League goals in 14 appearances in 2024/25.
Dortmund also fit the profile we're looking for. They have a realistic chance of finishing ninth to 24th and gaining two additional playoff matches, while still being capable of progressing deeper into the knockout rounds.
Extra games plus a proven Champions League scorer makes for an interesting combination at this price.
Top Goalscorer Longshot: Serhou Guirassy @ 67.00
Our Champions League Matchday 1 Picks
- Porto v Manchester City: Manchester City to Win
- Real Madrid v Inter: Both Teams to Score
- Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
- Dortmund v Villarreal: Serhou Guirassy Anytime Goalscorer
- Lille v Real Betis: Lille to Win
- Champions League Winner: Arsenal (Ryan) / Real Madrid (Jeremy)
- Top Goalscorer Value: Erling Haaland @ 9.00
- Top Goalscorer Longshot: Serhou Guirassy @ 67.00
Watch the full Free Tips Football Champions League preview above for the reasoning behind every selection.
For more Champions League predictions, betting tips and the latest bookmaker offers, visit Free Tips Football Hub throughout the competition.
Odds quoted were those discussed at the time of recording and may change. Please gamble responsibly.