Pegula's recent form makes this a fascinating semifinal, but Sabalenka's incredible record at the US Open and proven ability to deliver at the Grand Slam stage make her the slight favorite.
Sabalenka Chases Another Major Final In New York
- Sabalenka is on a seven-match winning streak in semifinals at hard-court Grand Slam tournaments.
- She has a 6–2 record against Top 10 players this year.
- Pegula has a 1–2 record in Grand Slam semifinals.
- She has a 3–8 record against Top 5 players at Grand Slam tournaments.
HTH - Aryna Sabalenka leads 9-4
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Berlin | SF | Grass | Pegula | 4-6, 7-6, 6-0 |
| 2025 | Masters Cup | — | Hard | Sabalenka | 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 2025 | Wuhan | SF | Hard | Pegula | 2-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 2025 | US Open | SF | Hard | Sabalenka | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2025 | Miami | F | Hard | Sabalenka | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 2024 | US Open | F | Hard | Sabalenka | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | F | Hard | Sabalenka | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2023 | Masters Cup | — | Hard | Pegula | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2022 | Masters Cup | — | Hard | Sabalenka | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2022 | Rome | R16 | Clay | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2021 | Madrid | R16 | Clay | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 2020 | French Open | 1R | Clay | Sabalenka | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 2020 | Cincinnati (New York) | R16 | Hard | Pegula | 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 |
Sabalenka Continues Her Remarkable US Open Dominance
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Linda Noskova in a tight three-set battle to reach the semifinals at the US Open, winning 7-6, 6-3, 7-6. She trailed by a break in the deciding set before producing another comeback to close out the match.
With this run, Sabalenka has become the sixth player in the Open Era to reach six consecutive US Open semifinals and the first since Serena Williams achieved the feat from 2011 to 2016.
This is only her second semifinal appearance on tour in the last five months and her first on hard courts since Miami, highlighting her struggles to go deep in recent months. After reaching four consecutive finals at the start of the season, she has yet to reach another final.
Since the start of 2025, Sabalenka has played 17 semifinals across all levels and won 13 of them. Three of her four losses came against American opponents, including two against Jessica Pegula.
At Grand Slam level, she has an 8-6 record in semifinals, with six of her eight victories coming in her last eight matches at this stage.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Belarus |
| Age | Born 5 May 1998 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 1 |
| Career High | No. 1 (11 September 2023) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 1 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 24 |
Pegula Defies Navarro to Book Another New York Semifinal
Jessica Pegula defeated Emma Navarro in three sets to secure her place in the semifinals at the US Open, winning 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. She trailed by a break in the deciding set but quickly bounced back to take control and complete the comeback.
She has now become the first player in the Open Era to reach her first four career Grand Slam semifinals after turning 30.
The American has shown exceptional consistency this year, winning 50 of her 62 matches on tour. Thirty-four of those victories have come on hard courts, including 12 quarterfinal-or-better results.
Pegula has played seven semifinals this year and lost her first two but has won her last five, including victories in Cincinnati and Washington during the North American swing.
She has played three Grand Slam semifinals before and lost two of them against Top 10 opponents. Her only victory came against then-World No. 52 Karolina Muchova at the US Open in 2024.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Age | Born 24 February 1994 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 3 |
| Career High | No. 3 (24 October 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 5 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 11 |