The 2026 US Open draw has been made with every player knowing their path to the final.
Top seed Alexander Zverev appears to have the easiest run to the showpiece with Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils all situated in the bottom half of the draw.
Fils has been the biggest mover in the market after winning the Cincinnati Masters, shortening from 41.00 to 12.00. Let's analyse the betting market and the top contenders for the final Grand Slam of the year.
2026 Men's US Open Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz |
3.20 |
| Alexander Zverev |
3.75 |
| Novak Djokovic |
8.00 |
| Ben Shelton |
10.00 |
| Arthur Fils |
12.00 |
| Rafael Jodar |
12.00 |
| Taylor Fritz |
13.00 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime |
26.00 |
| Jakub Mensik |
34.00 |
| Daniil Medvedev |
34.00 |
| Flavio Cobolli |
41.00 |
| Tommy Paul |
41.00 |
| Frances Tiafoe |
41.00 |
| Lorenzo Musetti |
41.00 |
| Alex De Minaur |
41.00 |
| Brandon Nakashima |
51.00 |
| Learner Tien |
51.00 |
| Alexander Bublik |
81.00 |
| Jiri Lehecka |
81.00 |
| Andrey Rublev |
81.00 |
| Casper Ruud |
101.00 |
| Karen Khachanov |
101.00 |
Source: Stake.com with odds correct on 28 August 2026
Carlos Alcaraz (3.20)
Alcaraz is the defending champion but hasn't played since April when he injured his wrist. The Spaniard is likely to face Alexander Bublik or Tommy Paul in the fourth round.
Ben Shelton or Arthur Fils will be difficult challenges in the quarter-finals before a collision course with Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals.
Alexander Zverev (3.75)
Zverev won his first Grand Slam at the French Open and will fancy his chance of capitalising on Jannik Sinner's withdrawal which makes him the top seed.
The German anchors the top half, his section including Lorenzo Musetti, teenage sensation Rafael Jodar and Alex de Minaur. Should he reach the semi-finals, Taylor Fritz is his most likely opponent.
Novak Djokovic (8.00)
Djokovic continues his quest for a 25th Grand Slam title, his last success coming at the 2023 US Open.
The Serbian may be tested on his way to the fourth round where an in-form Brandon Nakashima could be his opponent.
Projected quarter-final opponents include Daniil Medvedev and France Tiafoe, Carlos Alcaraz likely to be standing in his way in the semi-finals.
Ben Shelton (10.00)
Shelton has been a consistent performer at Grand Slams and has momentum on his side after winning the Canada Masters.
The American faces a collision course with Arthur Fils in the fourth round. To reach the final, Shelton is likely to have to get past Carlos Alcaraz in the quarters and Novak Djokovic in the semis.
Arthur Fils (12.00)
Fils faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round before potential clashes against Jiri Lehecka and Ben Shelton. Projected quarter-final opponents include Carlos Alcaraz before a semi-final clash against Novak Djokovic.
The Frenchman arrives in New York playing the best tennis of his career, capturing the Cincinnati Masters title and boasting one of the highest winning percentages on the ATP Tour this season.