Rafael Jodar is a short priced favourite here but Matteo Arnaldi has been showing why he was a Top 30 player in 2024.
I think Jodar will get through this one, but he might have to work hard for it against the home crowd favourite.
| Matteo Arnaldi | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy | Spain |
| Age | 25 (22 February 2001) | 19 (17 September 2006) |
| Height | 6'1" (1.85m) | 6'3" (1.91m) |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| World Ranking | 106 | 34 |
| Career High | 30 (August 2024) | 34 (May 2026) |
| ATP Tour Titles | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 ATP Tour Titles | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Rome Best Result | Second Round (2023, 2024) | First Appearance |
HTH
This will be the first match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar.
Arnaldi Finding Form
Matteo Arnaldi lost eight of his opening ten matches this year to fall out of the Top 100. Only one of those defeats came against a Top 50 player.
The Italian got some confidence back last week after winning the Cagliari Challenger. Three of his five wins came in 3 sets before 6-4 6-4 victory over Hubert Hurkacz in the final.
Arnaldi has kept it going in Rome, defeating Jaume Munar 6-3 3-6 6-3 and Alex de Minaur 4-6 7-6 6-4. He has saved a combined 8/11 break points in Italy where he is getting plenty of support.
Jodar Closing in on Top 20
Rafael Jodar has been a huge improver this year, climbing from 165 to 34 in the rankings. He won his first ATP Tour title in Marrakech before easing into in Barcelona semi-finals where he lost in 3 sets to Arthur Fils.
The 19-year-old went to Madrid and took out Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca on his way to the quarter-finals. He faced another top player, going down 6-2 7-6 to Jannik Sinner.
The Spaniard took some time to get going in his opening match in Rome. He trailed 4-2 against Nuno Borges before winning 7-6 6-4, saving 7/8 break points.