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Home / Tennis / Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez Betting Tips & Live Stream – Momentum Swings Toward De Jong in Bastad

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Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez Betting Tips & Live Stream – Momentum Swings Toward De Jong in Bastad

  • De Jong is in better form and thrives in Bastad's conditions
  • Baez has struggled recently, barely surviving his first round
  • Value favors De Jong to win, with a long match likely
Moti PrakashWritten by Moti Prakash
Tennis & Sports Writer10+ Years as a WTA Tennis Betting Analyst
Updated: Jul 16, 2026
 Jesper De Jong !Expired

Jesper De Jong looks on against Joao Fonseca in LondonSource: Getty

Sebastian Baez is undoubtedly the more accomplished and dependable player in this matchup, but his recent form has been far from convincing. He even dropped a set to heavy underdog Max Dahlin in the first round, raising further questions about his current level. Jesper de Jong, meanwhile, enjoyed the best week of his career at this event last year, finishing as runner-up, and returns with positive memories and plenty of motivation to defend those points.

De Jong Takes On The Favourite

  • De Jong is looking to reach his first tour-level quarterfinal since Umag 2025. 
  • He has a 3–10 record against higher-ranked opponents in 2026. 
  • Sebastian Baez has failed to win multiple matches in 10 of his last 11 events. 
  • He owns a 17–7 record against players outside the Top 50.

HTH - Sebastian Baez leads 1-0

YearTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020Futures 2020QFHardSebastian Baez2-6, 6-3, 6-3

De Jong Regains Confidence

Jesper de Jong kicked off his Bastad campaign with a straight-sets victory over Vilius Gaubas, winning 7-6, 7-5. He trailed by a break in the second set before producing a strong comeback to seal the match in straight sets. 

The 26-year-old struggled for confidence and consistency earlier this season, but his second-week appearance at the French Open, the best Grand Slam result of his career, followed by the Challenger title in Cattolica the next week, helped restore his confidence. 

Those results have moved him close to his career-high ranking of No. 71. He is now looking to reach his first tour-level quarterfinal since Umag last year.

CategoryDetails
CountryNetherlands
Age26 (Born 31 May 2000)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking73
Career High71 (5 January 2026)
Elo Ranking102 (Rating: 1711)
Tour-Level Titles0

Baez Battles Through Tough Opener

Sebastian Baez defeated local wildcard Max Dahlin in a three-set comeback, winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 to reach the second round. He saved nine break points across the final two sets, a key factor in turning the match around. 

This is the third time he has cleared the opening-round hurdle in four appearances at Bastad. He converted both of his previous first-round wins here into quarterfinal appearances and will look to continue that trend this week. 

The Argentine made a strong start to the season, reaching the final in Auckland, the semifinals in Buenos Aires and Santiago, and the third round at Indian Wells. 

However, since the start of the clay swing, his level has dropped significantly, with multiple main-draw wins in only one of his last 11 tournaments.

CategoryDetails
CountryArgentina
Age25 (Born 28 December 2000)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking56
Career High18 (24 June 2024)
Elo Ranking78 (Rating: 1745)
Tour-Level Titles7