New Zealand have struggled to contain the Springbok set piece in all three matches to date. If that continues in Baltimore, it is tough to see the All Blacks leveling the series.
Key Stats - Springboks Dominant in World Rugby
- South Africa have won 14 of their last 15 matches.
- South Africa have won 6 of their last 8 matches against New Zealand.
- New Zealand have lost their last 2 matches.
Recent South African Dominance
New Zealand still hold a comfortable advantage overall but in recent years the Springboks have dominated.
South Africa have Won 14 of their last 15
South Africa lead the series 2-1 and have bounced back well after losing the first Test. They have been largely dominant in the matches, but have allowed the All Blacks to score late points in both games.
The Springboks have not been at their best in this series either, but their set piece dominance has carried them throughout. That is unlikely to change in Baltimore with New Zealand seemingly having no answer to the Boks scrum.
It is clear how serious Rassie Erasmus has taken this series. Usually he rotates a lot but has kept largely the same side for all three matches and has yet again made no unforced changes.
New Zealand Returning to their Best
New Zealand enter this fourth test as a must-win just to level the series after they won the opening match of the series. At Ellis Park in the opener, New Zealand held on for the first 55 minutes before pulling away in the final quarter.
However, in the subsequent two matches, South Africa made their early dominance count enough to build a lead going into the final 20 minutes. That said, the All Blacks are in a better space than they were 12 months ago with Dave Rennie bringing back a faster type of game.
New Zealand will have to find a way to nullify the Springbok set piece though, if they are to level the series. That has been the biggest issue, handing the Springboks penalties, territory and points with the scrum going back at a rate of knots.