Otago are strong favourites against a Wellington side that has struggled for form, losing their last five matches. My best bet is Otago to cover the -17.5 handicap.
Key Stats - Otago in Good Form
- Otago have won 2 of the last 5 matches against Wellington.
- Otago have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Otago beat the Manawatu Turbos 29–27 in their previous match.
- Wellington has lost the last 5 matches.
- Wellington lost 47–7 to North Harbour in their previous match.
Wellington Hold Narrow Lead
Otago has won two of the last five meetings against Wellington.
Otago Showing Signs of Promise
Otago beat the Manawatu Turbos 29–27 in a thrilling Round 3 NPC match at Central Energy Trust Arena in Palmerston North, trailing 17-7 at halftime.
Otago completed a dramatic late comeback by scoring three tries in the final ten minutes.
Samuel Nemec-Vial scored two tries, including a dramatic winning try for Otago in the 78th minute to seal the two-point victory.
Cameron Millar & Patrick Pellegrini shared the kicking duties effectively, adding vital conversions under pressure to secure the two-point win. Henry Bell, Kieran McClea, and Lucas Casey provided crucial second-half scores off the bench to claw Otago back into the contest before the final whistle.
Otago have had an inconsistent run of form, winning three of their last five matches. They beat Bay of Plenty (41-17), lost to Canterbury (36-28), beat Southland Stags (41-14), lost to Canterbury (19-15), and defeated Manawatu (29-27).
Otago are sixth in the NPC table with 11 points after three matches of the 2026 campaign.
Otago Predicted Lineup
Starting XV: 1 Ben Lopas, 2 Henry Bell, 3 Rohan Wingham, 4 Will Stodart, 5 Joseva Tamani, 6 Oliver Haig, 7 Lucas Casey, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 9 Kieran McClea, 10 Cameron Millar, 11 Jona Nareki, 12 Jake Te Hiwi, 13 Josh Timu, 14 Jae Broomfield, 15 Sam Nemec-Vial.
Replacements: 16 Nic Souchon, 17 Marley Pearce, 18 Moana Takataka, 19 Harry Irving, 20 Slade McDowall, 21 Joel Lam, 22 Patrick Pellegrini, 23 Josh Whaanga.
Wellington Struggling
Wellington were crushed 47–7 by North Harbour in their Round 3 NPC match at Hnry Stadium in their previous match, after trailing 12–7 at halftime.
Wellington has been in poor form, losing their last five matches. They lost to Taranaki Bulls (39-20), Bay of Plenty (33-26), Hawke's Bay (41-14), Auckland (34-31), and North Harbour (47-7).
Wellington are 13th in the NPC table with seven points after three matches of the 2026 campaign.
Wellington Predicted Lineup
Starting XV: 1 Geordie Bean, 2 James O'Reilly, 3 Alex Hewitt, 4 Johnny Falloon, 5 Hugo Plummer, 6 Caleb Delany, 7 Du'Plessis Kirifi, 8 Matolu Petaia, 9 Logan Henry, 10 Cameron Burgess, 11 Reo Matsushita, 12 Divad Palu, 13 Jackson Ropata, 14 Isi Saumaki, 15 Jordan Soli.
Replacements: 16 Penieli Poasa, 17 Jake Turnbull, 18 Samu Tawake, 19 Murphy Taramai, 20 Dominic Ropeti, 21 Riley Williams, 22 Piri Paraone, 23 William Davis.