Both teams won their final round robin games last weekend to ensure they made the playoffs (Tasman) and secured a home playoff (Northland). However, Northland's form on home soil gives them the edge for me in what could be a tight encounter.
Key Stats - Northland Six from Eight at Home
- Northland have won 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Northland have won 2 of their last 3 home games against Tasman.
- Tasman have lost 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
- Tasman lost by 10 points away to Northland earlier this season.
Tasman have Historical Edge
Tasman lead 7-4 in their last 11 NPC encounters against Northland, however, earlier in this campaign, Northland beat Tasman 20-10 on home soil.
Northland Superb at Home
Northland scored two converted tries in the first half against Southland last weekend, but went into the tunnel at the break with the scores level at 14-14.
The Taniwha added two late converted tries in the second half to come out on top against Southland, winning 28-14 away from home.
Earlier in their campaign, Northland defeated Manawatu 40-14 at home, lost 34-21 away to Bay of Plenty, beat Taranaki 42-0 at home, Canterbury 36-12 away, and Tasman 20-10 at home, lost 57-42 away to North Harbour, and then defeated Waikato 34-17 at home, and Wellington 52-28 away before losing 22-19 to Counties Manukau at home.
The Taniwha placed second in the National Provincial Championship table during the regular season, with 38 points from ten matches.
Northland have the advantage of playing their quarter-final match against Tasman on their home turf, having won six of their eight games at their stadium, which includes beating their opponents by ten points at the end of August.
Tasman Consistency Concerns
Tasman scored three converted tries in the first half against Waikato last weekend to lead their hosts 21-14 at half-time.
Tasman Makos were in great touch in the second half, scoring five tries and two conversions to cruise to an easy 50-33 away win over Waikato.
During the regular season, the Makos defeated North Harbour 31-29 at home, lost 50-19 away to Hawke's Bay, and defeated Counties Manukau 50-35 away and Southland 46-17 at home, respectively, lost 20-10 away to Northland, beat Wellington 42-28 at home, and lost 57-33 away to Otago, and 24-22 to Auckland at home before beating Bay of Plenty 45-26 at home.
Tasman finished their campaign seventh in the National Provincial Championship standings with 32 points from ten games.
Tasman have produced inconsistent results this season and have struggled to win away from home, having suffered five defeats in their last eight matches, including a 20-10 loss away to Northland.
Team News & Starting Lineups
Northland
Grady Forbes, Reesjan Pasitoa, Corey Evans, and Heath MacEwan each scored a try against Southland last weekend.
Rivez Reihana slotted four conversions in the match.
Starting XV: Esile Fono, James Mullan, Daniel Botha, Josh Goodhue, Allan Craig, Rob Rush, Lachie Hooper, Terrell Peita, Sam Nock, Rivez Reihana, Brady Rush, Reesjan Pasitoa, Corey Evans, Heremaia Murray, James Ramm
Replacements: Jordan Hutchings, Olly Ryan, Ricki Heremaia, Darcy Holwell, Grady Forbes, Josh Renton, Nathan Salmon, Jordan Trainor
Tasman Makos
Kyren Taumoefolau scored an impressive four tries against Waikato last weekend.
Johnny Lee, David Havili, Macca Springer, and Cooper Roberts each crossed the try line in the match.
William Havili slotted four conversions, while Maloni Kunawave kicked over one conversion.
Starting XV: Moli Monu, Eli Oudendryn, Ryan Coxon, Jake Frost, Hunter Leppien, Tayne Hemopo, Rory Scott, Johnny Lee (c), Noah Hotham, William Havili, Macca Springer, David Havili, Cooper Roberts, Kyren Taumoefolau, Maloni Kunawave
Replacements: Dylan Irvine, Jake Wetere, Vea Taumoefolau, Harry Horncastle, Matt Lowe, Mitch Drumond, Cooper Grant, Nic Saura