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Home / Rugby Union / New Zealand vs Italy Betting Tips - Italy can cover against New Zealand in Nations Championship

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New Zealand vs Italy Betting Tips - Italy can cover against New Zealand in Nations Championship

  • All Blacks won all 17 matches vs Italy
  • Italy improved but lost last two games
  • Italy backed to finish within 32.5-point handicap
Ralph StaniforthWritten by Ralph Staniforth
Sports Editor15+ Years of Experience, South African Sports Specialist
Updated: Jul 10, 2026
new zealand rugby vs france!Expired

New Zealand have never lost to Italy (Getty Images)


Italy have a very good and competitive side, as results have shown recently. While beating the All Blacks might prove a step too far, they can certainly get withing 32.5 points.

Key Stats - All Blacks Expected to Dominate


  • New Zealand have won their last 17 matches against Italy.
  • New Zealand have won 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Italy have lost their last 2 matches.

New Zealand have Never Lost to Italy


The All Blacks lead 17-0 in fixtures against Italy.

New Zealand Fortunate Escape Last weekend


New Zealand were fortunate last weekend in their opening Nations Championship fixture, beating France 34-32 at home. Regardless, it was an important win to get the tournament underway.

While the new coaching staff settle in at the All Blacks, things may take some time to come right. Consistency may elude them for their first few games, but this fixture against Italy, a team they have never lost to, should offer another opportunity to build on their plan.

Despite not having the best 2025, New Zealand have still won six of their last seven matches, including their first 2026 win last weekend.

Italy Need to find their Way Back to Form


Italy are a vastly improved side over the last two years and have become a team that can beat most teams on their day. They proved that during the Six Nations earlier this year, finishing fourth and beating England.

Italy also beat Australia at the end of 2025, so they should be confident, however, their most recent form has not been convincing. After beating England in Rome, the Italians lost 31-17 in Wales before going down 27-10 to Japan last weekend.

They will make changes to their side, but the Italians will have to be far better than they were last weekend if they wish to compete with the All Blacks.

New Zealand vs Italy Sarting Lineups


New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Sam Darry, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.

Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby.

Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Malik Faissal, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Louis Lynagh, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Ross Vintcent, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Giulio Marini, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Riccardo Favretto, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Leonardo Marin.
Ralph Staniforth

Ralph Staniforth

Sports Editor15+ Years of Experience, South African Sports Specialist

Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town. 

He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport. 

Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa. 

Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf. 


He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.
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