Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Preview
The Roosters should win but have been given a -11.5 handicap line to cover. History suggests the Knights will stay close to Sydney so take them with the start. Also take the Game Total going under 52.5 points.
- The Roosters have won 4 of the last 5 head to head meetings but by an average margin of just 4.8 points.
- The model's fair line for this game is -3.4, nearly 8 points shorter than the current market of -11.5.
- The Under has hit in just 46% of games this season, it is underrepresented, and the model projects a total of 46.8 against a market of 52.5.
- Victor Radley has a model probability of 25.2% as anytime tryscorer against a market implied probability of 18.2%, a 7-point edge.
Head to Head
These two sides have a rivalry that consistently runs closer than the ladder positions suggest.
Last season's encounter was a tight 12-8 win to the Roosters in Newcastle, and the four wins prior to that all came by margins of 30, 2, 2 and 2 points respectively, three of the five decided by a single converted try.
The Roosters clearly hold the edge in this matchup but anyone expecting a blowout has not been paying attention.
Sydney Roosters Win 3 Of Last 5
The Roosters head into Round 7 off the back of an impressive 34-22 win over the Sharks in Perth last weekend, their third win in the last five games.
The result was built on a dominant second half after they trailed by 10 at the break, which is arguably the most encouraging sign with the ability to adjust and grind the game out when it matters.
Victor Radley returned from suspension and made an immediate impact, while Daly Cherry-Evans and Daniel Tupou both crossed twice.
Trent Robinson has named an unchanged 17 which is a clear statement of confidence heading into this one.
Newcastle Knights Sit Sixth, Despite Loss Last Week
Newcastle were dealt a heavy defeat last week, going down 42-22 to the Tigers at Campbelltown, but their record before that game was an encouraging 3-1 over the four rounds prior. They sit sixth on the ladder and will be desperate to protect that top eight spot.
The return of Dylan Brown is the headline and his move into the halves sees Fletcher Sharpe shift to fullback which is his natural position and also gives the Knights a genuine point of difference out the back.
Sharpe has been excellent in limited minutes this season and now gets the chance to dictate from his preferred role.
The Knights have the pieces to stay in this game; the question is whether they have the consistency to see out 80 minutes on the road against a side that has their number.