Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Verdict
A top-of-the-table blockbuster gets Round 24 underway and the Roosters have been underestimated a little in the market. I think Sydney can pass 20.5 points and win this game to extend things to eight straight.
- The Panthers have lost 4 of their last 7 games and now go into a top-of-the-table game without Isaah Yeo, who is out for a month with a pectoral injury.
- The Roosters have won 7 straight and have averaged 33.4 points across their last 5 games, making over 20.5 team total the cleanest scoring angle.
- Penrith won the Round 3 meeting 40-4, but Sydney have now drawn level on 36 competition points and can take pole position in the minor premiership race with a win.
- Billy Smith scored a double last week and has crossed in 6 straight games, while Brian To'o is chasing the 100-try milestone from his usual wing spot.
Head to Head Stats
Penrith have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning four of the last five against Sydney and smashing the Roosters 40-4 back in Round 3 this season. The Panthers have also won by 28+ points in two of the last five meetings.
The Roosters did win the only Penrith home game in that run 38-32 last season, and three of the last five meetings have cleared 40.5 points.
Penrith Panthers Form
Penrith were punched in the mouth early in Auckland last week and never really recovered, losing 28-12 to the Warriors. They trailed 18-0 at halftime, with New Zealand holding 56% possession and running for 1008 metres compared with Penrith's 624 metres in the first 40 minutes.
Nathan Cleary sparked a brief fightback with a try and a 40/20 in the second half, and Jaxen Edgar also crossed to drag the margin back to 22-12. The issue was the damage had already been done. Paul Alamoti had a try rubbed out in the 75th minute, then Luke Metcalf scored again to finish the game.
The bigger concern is Yeo. Penrith still have the No. 1 ranked attack for points and Run Mts, but losing their captain, lock and middle organiser changes the way their sets are built.
Across their last five, the Panthers have averaged 25.2 points scored and 18.4 conceded, which is still elite, but the last month has clearly looked shakier than the first half of the season.
Sydney Roosters Form
The Roosters were nowhere near their cleanest against Canterbury and still found a way to win 20-18. That is the sign of a team with genuine momentum.
They trailed 18-8 with 13 minutes to play before Billy Smith scored his second try and Salesi Foketi chased through for the match-winner in the 70th minute.
It was not pretty. Sydney made 12 errors and gave away 6 penalties, but they found the late punch that good teams find. Sam Walker nailed the sideline conversion after Smith's second try and then converted Foketi's try from in front to complete the comeback.
The Roosters have averaged 33.4 points scored and only 14.0 conceded across their last 5 games, and James Tedesco returning at fullback adds another layer to their attack.
They rank third in the NRL for run metres and third for points allowed, so this is not just a hot attacking streak. They are winning the field position battle and defending well enough to cash in.