Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
Newcastle have beaten South Sydney and the Warriors and now bid to take the scalp of the Penrith Panthers. The Knights might just do it, but the best bet is a +10.5 line being covered.
Bradman Best and Fletcher Sharpe are backed in the tryscorer markets in what is predicted to be a low-scoring affair.
- Penrith have won nine of their last 10 games against Newcastle.
- Newcastle have won seven of their last nine Sunday matches.
- Penrith have won just one of their last four matches at Accor Stadium.
- Penrith's last six matches have finished under their respective game totals.
- Newcastle have conceded just 20 points across their two finals victories.
Head to Head
Penrith have dominated this matchup recently, winning nine of the last 10 meetings between the clubs.
The most recent was particularly convincing, with the Panthers travelling to Newcastle in Round 8 this season and winning 44-12. Penrith also won 48-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium last season.
There is one notable exception. Newcastle travelled to Penrith in 2025 and came away with a 25-6 victory, showing they have been capable of upsetting the Panthers during this recent stretch.
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis
The Panthers have had a week to prepare after beating the Roosters 19-12 in their qualifying final and enter Sunday having won four consecutive matches.
Defence continues to be their foundation. Penrith conceded only 46 points across those four victories, an average of 11.5 per game, and finished the regular season as the NRL's No.1 ranked defence for points conceded.
Nathan Cleary has been named despite the foot issue he picked up against the Roosters. He kicked the decisive field goal in that victory, while Dylan Edwards produced 210 metres from 28 runs and Brian To'o sealed the result with a late try.
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Newcastle's transformation from 2025 wooden spooners to preliminary finalists has continued with consecutive elimination wins over South Sydney and the Warriors.
The Knights beat Souths 20-10 before heading across the Tasman and grinding out a 12-10 win at Eden Park. Kalyn Ponga was again central to everything Newcastle did, while Fletcher Sharpe scored their crucial try and finished with 133 metres and 10 tackle busts.
That defensive improvement is the biggest reason to consider the +10.5. Newcastle conceded an average of 29.2 points across their previous five games entering this stage of the season, but have allowed only 10 points in each of their two finals.
Team News
Nathan Cleary has been named despite his foot injury, with Isaah Yeo returning to lock and Jack Cogger and Luke Garner back in the Panthers squad.
Newcastle have retained the same 19-man squad from the win over the Warriors, with Dylan Lucas expected to see more minutes after successfully returning from his fractured ankle.