Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs Verdict
Canterbury are hanging on in terms of making the finals and they can give this one a crack. With a good recent record against Penrith, I'm taking the Bulldogs to cover with a +9.5 start. The game can also go over 40.5 points
- Canterbury have won two of their last three games against Penrith.
- The Bulldogs are averaging 24.4 points across their last five matches.
- Five of the last eight Panthers-Bulldogs clashes have gone Over 40.5 points.
- Penrith are averaging 21.2 points across their last five games.
- Jacob Preston has scored six tries in his last four matches against Penrith.
Head to Head
Penrith have won three of the last five meetings overall, but Canterbury have taken two of the most recent three.
The Bulldogs produced one of their best wins of the season when these sides met in Round 6, beating Penrith 32-16.
Canterbury also defeated the Panthers 28-4 late in the 2025 regular season, although Penrith responded emphatically with a 46-26 finals victory a few weeks later.
The scoring history supports the total as well, with five of their last eight meetings finishing above the current 40.5-point total.
Penrith Panthers Form
Penrith returned to winning form with a 22-14 victory over Melbourne after consecutive defeats to the Warriors and Roosters.
Their defence remains the foundation of everything they do. The Panthers have conceded only 327 points this season at an average of 14 per game, comfortably the strongest defensive record of the two sides.
Their attack has been less consistent recently, however. Penrith are averaging just 21.2 points across their last five despite sitting among the competition's highest-scoring teams for the season.
Canterbury Bulldogs Form
Canterbury's season looked close to finished before their 44-14 demolition of St George Illawarra changed the equation again.
The Bulldogs have now won three of their last five and six of their last nine, with their latest performance showing significantly more attacking fluency.
Moving Matt Burton into the centres worked immediately against the Dragons, while Lachlan Galvin produced his strongest game of the season with five try involvements.
The Bulldogs are also conceding just 16.8 points per game across their last five. If that defensive effort continues, the +9.5 start gives them enough room even if Penrith ultimately prove too strong.