NRL Grand Final 2026 Preview & Verdict
Could Newcastle Knights go from wooden spoon to premiership winners in the space of 12 months? They have a strong chance and at the very least can cover with a +7.5 point start against the Sydney Roosters.
The Roosters have won the last six matches against Newcastle, but four of the last five were decided by four points or less. Take Newcastle +7.5 and the Game Total over 42.5 points.
For extra value, we also have First Tryscorer selections and two Clive Churchill Medal bets picked out.
- Only the 2022 Panthers have started as 7.5-point favourites or bigger and covered in a Grand Final since 2019, while the 2019 Roosters won 14-8 as 7.5-point favourites and missed the line.
- 4 of the last 5 Roosters v Knights games have been decided by 4 points or fewer.
- Newcastle have won three straight knockout finals and held Penrith scoreless in the second half with 12 men.
- Both 2026 meetings cleared 42.5, and 2 of the last 3 Grand Finals have gone over the number.
- Dom Young has scored in 4 straight games and has 5 tries in 3 games at Accor Stadium this season.
- Daniel Tupou has scored in 2 straight games and 3 of his last 4, and is the Roosters' best aerial target.
Head to Head Stats
The Roosters have won the last six games against Newcastle, but this has been a much tighter rivalry than that record suggests.
Across the last five meetings the average margin is just 4.6 points, and four of those five games were decided by four points or less. Newcastle would have covered a 7.5-point start in four of those five games.
The two games this season showed both sides of Newcastle. In Round 7 at Allianz Stadium the Knights led 24-12 at halftime behind a Fletcher Hunt hat-trick, before the Roosters piled on 26 unanswered points to win 38-24.
In Round 21 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle led 16-10 in the second half and were level 22-22 with seven minutes left before Daly Cherry-Evans kicked a 77th-minute field goal.
Sydney Roosters Form
The Roosters have found form at exactly the right time. Before the last fortnight they had lost four straight, including a 19-12 qualifying final loss to Penrith, but they have since hit back with a 46-10 demolition of Cronulla and a 36-20 win over the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium in the preliminary final.
Mark Nawaqanitawase has been the headline act, with five tries in his last three games, including a 90-metre intercept to open the scoring against the Dolphins.
He plays his final rugby league game on Sunday before heading to rugby union in Japan, and it is also Daly Cherry-Evans' last NRL game before he joins Hull FC. There will be plenty of emotion in the Roosters camp.
Sam Walker is back from his syndesmosis injury and Victor Radley is available after taking the early plea, so the Roosters are close to full strength.
The only concern is Connor Watson, who failed a HIA against the Dolphins and needs clearance to play. The Roosters also have two extra days to prepare after playing on Friday night, which is an edge in a fourth straight week of finals footy.
Newcastle Knights Form
Newcastle's run has been remarkable. They finished 7th, lost their last two regular-season games to Manly and the Warriors, then won three straight sudden-death finals, conceding just 34 points across the three games.
The preliminary final win over Penrith was the best of the lot. Sandon Smith, who came through the Roosters system, scored twice and kicked three goals, including a late intercept and 80-metre run to seal the game.
The Knights were down to 12 men from the 36th minute and still held the Panthers scoreless in the second half.
The cost of that game is Phoenix Crossland, who has a four-game ban for the hip-drop on Nathan Cleary. Harrison Graham, who covered at hooker in Round 26, is expected to start.
Newcastle also have less time to recover after playing on Sunday, but this group now has a self-belief it simply did not have earlier in the year, and with Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dominic Young all in the side, they have enough strike to trouble the Roosters' edges.