North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders Verdict
The Cowboys are tipped to cover a -5.5 line at home in the final game of the regular season. There is also value for Scott Drinkwater, Jaxon Purdue and Xavier Savage in the tryscorer markets.
- Cowboys have won seven of the last eight meetings
- Raiders haven't won in Townsville since 2018
- Cowboys have covered a -5.5 line in 10 of their 13 wins this season
- Raiders have failed to cover a +5.5 line in 10 of their 13 defeats this season
- Raiders have conceded 1+ try to opposition fullbacks in their last four games (Scott Drinkwater has nine tries this season)
- Jaxon Purdue has scored a try in his last three games
- Cowboys have conceded 1+ try to a winger in 13 of their last 14 games, including 32 in total (Xavier Savage has six tries in his last nine games)
Cowboys vs Raiders Head To Head
The Cowboys have won seven of the last eight meetings, but it was Canberra who emerged victorious 26-12 when the sides met in Round 13 earlier this season.
North Queensland Cowboys Form
A 5-6 record over the last 11 games and only one top eight victory since Round 12 isn't really indicative of a finals side, but the Cowboys have managed to scrap their way into the top eight.
It hasn't been pretty - consistency and defence remain a huge issue including the Cows conceding 80 points to the Roosters in Townsville. But the Cowboys got the job done by beating the Tigers 24-10 last week.
North Queensland trailed 8-10 at half-time, but responded with three second-half tries to Purdue, Heilum Luki and Tom Chester to secure the vital two points that clinched them a top eight finish.
Canberra Raiders Form
No two ways around it, a hugely disappointing season for the Raiders, who have gone from winning the minor premiership to finishing well outside the finals positions.
There was always a huge element of luck to last season and it's evened out in 2026, with Canberra losing 13 of their 23 games.
Ricky Stuart's side have lost three of their last four games, including last week's poor 34-30 defeat to the embattled Broncos at home.
Cowboys vs Raiders Team News
Robert Derby comes onto the wing for Zac Laybutt, who is out with concussion for the Cowboys. Jeremiah Nanai is also out injured along with Griffin Neame, so Sam McIntyre and Kaiden Lahrs join the bench.
Coby Black will make his NRL debut for Canberra in the halves, replacing Ethan Sanders.
Noah Martin returns from a quad injury and replaces Zac Hosking, who is out with a hamstring problem. Malachi Smith will make his NRL debut off the bench, while it's also the final game of Josh Papalii's career.