Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters Verdict
Sydney Roosters enjoy this match up, winning the last five games against the Newcastle Knights. I'm backing them to edge a tight contest with under 45.5 points also appealing.
- The Roosters have won their last five games against Newcastle.
- Sydney’s last three wins at McDonald Jones Stadium have come by four, two and two points.
- Six of the last eight meetings have produced fewer than 45.5 points.
- Eight of the Roosters’ last nine matches have gone Under their respective totals.
Head to Head
The Roosters have dominated the overall rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 meetings against the Knights.
Sydney won 38-24 when the teams met earlier this season, but their recent trips to Newcastle have been far tighter. The Roosters won 12-8 in 2025, 22-20 in 2024 and 18-16 in 2023, with the Knights making the visitors work for the result each time.
Newcastle have not beaten the Roosters at McDonald Jones Stadium since 2019.
Newcastle Knights Form - Back-to-Back Defeats
Newcastle have lost their last two matches, but both defeats came by only two points against strong opponents. They pushed Cronulla to the final moments in a 20-18 loss after falling 26-24 to South Sydney the previous week.
The Knights have now played seven consecutive games decided by six points or fewer. That run reflects both their improved resilience and their inability to close out tight matches, with three of their most recent defeats coming by exactly two points.
Kalyn Ponga remains the focal point of the attack, while Dylan Brown and Fletcher Sharpe provide variation in the halves. Newcastle have averaged only 17.8 points across their last five games, but their defence has limited opponents to 16.8 over the same period.
Their five-game winning streak at McDonald Jones Stadium makes them difficult to oppose completely.
Sydney Roosters Form - Four Wins Straight
The Roosters have won four consecutive matches to move within two competition points of the ladder-leading Panthers. Their run includes victories over Cronulla, Brisbane, Parramatta and Melbourne, with Sydney conceding 18 points or fewer in every game.
Last week’s 14-6 win over the Storm was not their most polished attacking performance, but it demonstrated their defensive improvement.
Melbourne did not play the ball inside Sydney’s 20-metre zone until the second half, while the Roosters controlled field position through their forwards and kicking game.
Sydney hold a clear advantage in kick metres, averaging 704.2 across their last five matches compared with Newcastle’s 646.6.
Sam Walker and Daly Cherry-Evans have developed an effective combination, while Naufahu Whyte continues to provide strong carries and second-phase opportunities through the middle.