Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Verdict
Penrith have hit a blip with back-to-back defeats to derail their run to the finals, but they can bounce back against Melbourne Storm. It was 50-10 in the Round 5 clash between the sides and the Panthers can cover the -8.5 line in this one.
- Penrith defeated Melbourne 50-10 when the teams met in Round 5.
- Melbourne have conceded an average of 28 points across their last three games.
- Penrith rank third in the NRL for points scored and first for run metres.
- Tom Jenkins scored two tries against Melbourne earlier this season.
Head to Head
Penrith produced a 50-10 demolition in Round 5, running away with a 40-point victory and providing a strong reference point for the quality gap between these sides in 2026.
Melbourne Storm Form - Run Ended
Melbourne come into Round 25 fresh from the bye after snapping a three-game losing streak with a 42-20 victory over Manly.
That performance demonstrated the attacking threat still available to Craig Bellamy, with Sua Fa'alogo starring as the Storm overturned a 14-0 deficit and scored 42 unanswered points. Cameron Munster is also available after his judiciary charge was downgraded.
However, the wider numbers show why Melbourne remain difficult to trust against the competition's best sides. They have conceded 28, 36 and 20 points across their past three matches and sit just 11th on the ladder after nine wins from 21 games.
Their season-long defensive numbers are also a major contrast to Penrith. Melbourne concede 24 points per game compared with just 14 for the Panthers.
Penrith Panthers Form - Dip With Back-to-Back Defeats
Penrith are experiencing a rare late-season dip after losses to the Warriors and Roosters.
The Panthers were held to six points against Sydney last week and have failed to score in the first half in consecutive matches. Their attack looked disjointed against the Roosters despite repeatedly finding its way into attacking territory.
Those performances should not erase the quality Penrith have shown across the full season. They remain second with 15 wins from 21 matches, average 28 points per game and have conceded only 313 points all year.
The underlying matchup numbers are also strongly in Penrith's favour. They rank first for run metres compared with Melbourne's 15th, while their defence ranks first for points conceded and second for linebreak prevention.