Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Verdict
The Dolphins are hit with Origin absentees, but can still continue their winning streak away at the Knights. Herbie Farnworth is tipped to be the key man for the Phins with tries predicted and the total to stay under.
- The Dolphins have won eight consecutive matches.
- Newcastle have won all five previous meetings against the Dolphins.
- The model projects the Dolphins by 6.1 points against a 1.5-point line.
- Both teams have conceded just 18.4 points per game across their last five matches.
- Herbie Farnworth has scored a try in each of his last 3 matches.
Head to Head
History belongs to Newcastle, who have won all five meetings between the clubs since the Dolphins entered the competition.
Every game has been competitive, with margins of 6, 14, 8, 4 and 2 points, but this is the strongest Dolphins outfit the Knights have faced and they arrive in far better form than previous encounters.
Newcastle Knights Form - Knights Winning Run
The Knights have won four of their last five matches to climb into the top five, averaging 25.6 points while conceding just 18.4 during that stretch.
Adam O'Brien's side has built its success on resilience, grinding out close victories and defending well in key moments, particularly at McDonald Jones Stadium where they have won four straight.
The challenge this week is replacing Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best. Fletcher Sharpe moves back to fullback after impressing there previously, while Dylan Brown will shoulder more responsibility as Newcastle's chief playmaker.
The Knights have shown they can compete without their stars, but against the competition's most in-form side they'll need to produce one of their best performances of the season.
Dolphins Form - Eight Straight For Phins
The Dolphins continue to establish themselves as genuine premiership contenders, riding an eight-game winning streak into Round 18.
They have averaged 36.0 points across their last five games while winning by an average margin of 17.6 points, combining attacking flair with a defence that has quietly conceded only 18.4 points per match over the same period.
What's been most impressive is their ability to keep winning despite missing key personnel. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa, Jack Bostock, Selwyn Cobbo, Max Plath and Tom Flegler are all unavailable, yet the Dolphins continue to dominate through the middle before creating opportunities on the edges.
Tom Gilbert returns to strengthen the forward rotation, while Herbie Farnworth, Jamayne Isaako and Kodi Nikorima provide more than enough strike to keep the attack rolling.