2025 State of Origin Series Preview
NSW head into the 2025 Origin series as defending champions after snapping a two-year streak that Queensland had built and they did it in a dominant fashion.
After being blown off the park in Game 1 last year, the Blues regathered to beat the Maroons by a margin in Game 2 and showed tenacity coming from 2-0 down at half time in Game 3 at Suncorp to take the series.
We've picked out four predictions for the 2025 series.
2025 State of Origin Series Schedule
Game 1
Where: Suncorp Stadium Brisbane
When: Wednesday, May 28th - 8:05pm AEST
Game 2
Where: Optus Stadium Perth
When: Wednesday, June 18th - 8:05pm AEST
When: Wednesday, June 18th - 8:05pm AEST
Game 3
Where: Accor Stadium Sydney
When: Wednesday, July 9th - 8:05pm AEST
2025 State of Origin Prediction
New South Wales 3-0
Where this series will be won and lost will be the defensive capabilities of the outside backs. NSW have one of the most formiddable backlines in recent Origin history while QLD’s back 5 (apart from Toia) have constantly been found out defensively for their club this year.
There is a distinct difference in the makeup of the two forward packs with NSW being a bit bigger and heavier and QLD opting for the more mobile pack. Possession and territory will be key for the Maroons if they are to avoid fatigue early in games while the Blues will surely look to apply pressure through their running and strong defence from the outset.
The match up of the bench units is clearly in the Blues favour in terms of plug and play components and overall toughness but they are lacking an out and out cover if an outside back was to go down with injury.
It is hard to separate the coaches, Daley was at the helm through a rough time in general for NSW and will now get his chance to prove that he is able to motivate and create a winning game plan for a team full of stars and momentum. Billy Slater loves being the underdog and there is no doubt he has an ace up his sleeve just in case they end up behind the 8-ball.
2025 State of Origin Player of the Series - Wally Lewis Medal
Player of the Series - Stephen Crichton or Daly Cherry-Evans
Angus Crichton won the Wally Lewis Medal for Player of the Series in 2024 and is currently an outsider at $29 to take the award in back to back series.
Nathan Cleary $5.00 is the favourite followed by Mitch Moses $7.50 which backs up the motive that NSW is the favourite to take out the series. Cam Munster $10 is the first Queenslander on the list as 3rd favourite.
The bets.com.au top picks for Wally Lewis Medal in 2025 are Stephen Crichton from NSW and Daly Cherry-Evans from QLD.
Stephen Crichton is one of the most dynamic players on the field over both teams, his ability to break the line, move the ball and defend on an island are elite. With the narrative that the series will be won by NSW off the back of their superior backline, Crichton is the perfect option to be the leader in that category and the value is tremendous.
Daly Cherry-Evans will need to put on a masterclass if QLD are to have any chance of winning this series. He will need to steer his team around the park with perfection and use his experience and initiative to turn the tables when things get hot. DCE's kicking game will be important if QLD are losing the territory battle and it is likely he will be the one to set up his teammates for scoring opportunities.
A Queenslander has won the Wally Lewis Medal in 15 of 21 series since the honour was awarded.
A forward has won the honours in 3 straight series (Pat Carrigan in 2022, Reuben Cotter in 2023, Crichton in 2024).
2025 State of Origin Top Tryscorer
Top Tryscorer - Zac Lomax and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
It is extremely unlikely that anyone bar a winger snags the honours of most tries in the 2025 State of Origin Series.
Valentine Holmes is currently the 3rd leading tryscorer in Origin history having scored 13 tries in 19 appearances for QLD. His teammate Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is in hot pursuit having crossed 9 times in 7 matches played for a average of 1.29 per game.
With NSW tipped to win the series, the top tryscorer is likely to come from their playing ranks and given the ability of Zac Lomax to find the line he is our top pick in this category. Lomax has scored 3 tries in 3 origin appearances and has scored 16 tries in 27 NRL appearances dating back to the start of the 2024 season.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's strike rate so far in Origin it is impossible to discount him from being the top tryscorer in this series, he is our top pick from the Maroons and could still be the leading tryscorer if points are concentrated down that edge.