Voters in Greater Manchester's Gorton & Denton constituency go to the polls on Thursday (February 26th) to elect a new MP after the recent resignation of Andrew Gwynne.
The seat was created for the 2024 general election and Labour won comfortably then, but this by-election has turned into a three-way contest among the Green Party, Reform UK and Labour, reflecting broader volatility in British politics and local dissatisfaction with traditional party alignments.
Latest Gorton & Denton Betting Odds
Gorton & Denton By-Election betting odds at time of writing are as follows:
| Party | Odds (Winner) |
|---|---|
| Green Party | 8/13 |
| Reform UK | 3/1 |
| Labour Party | 5/1 |
| Advance UK | 350/1 |
| Conservatives | 500/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 500/1 |
Notes: Odds correct as of 07:55 GMT on Wednesday, February 25th, 2026. Odds courtesy of bet365.
The bookies have the Green Party as the clear favourite, with Reform UK a distant second and Labour even further back - a significant departure from the 2024 general election dynamics, when Labour held a large majority.
Gorton & Denton By-Election Polling Snapshot
Several constituency-specific polls for this by-election campaign have been published in recent days. The polling data below excludes those who said they would not vote or were undecided, and all were conducted in February 2026:
| Pollster | Labour | Reform | Green Party | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinium (for Byline Times/Forward Democracy, February 24th) | 28% | 27% | 28% | Tie between three main parties |
| Omnisis / Opal Ltd (mid-February) | 26% | 29 | 33% | Greens narrowly ahead |
| Find Out Now (small sample, mid-February) | 33% | 36% | 21% | Reform ahead, but highest margin of error |
The betting suggests a Green Party win, but the above polls show things a little differently, especially with the most recent poll from Opinium. This looks set to be a highly competitive contest with all three of the largest parties in striking distance of victory and no consistent polling leader - although the Greens have led in two of the three surveys and Reform led in the smaller sample poll.
Campaign Dynamics & Tactical Voting
There is no doubt that tactical voting discussions are shaping voter behaviour. Some Labour supporters appear inclined to back the Greens to keep Reform UK out, while others remain loyal to Labour despite disillusionment with national leadership and local campaign issues.
Reform’s messaging on infrastructure and services resonates in parts of the seat feeling “left behind,” while the Greens have attracted younger and progressive voters.
The three-way split in polls reflects these complex local dynamics and suggests turnout patterns and undecided voters could be decisive.
What to Watch on Polling Day
- Uneven support: None of the three main parties consistently leads across all polls, making outright predictions difficult.
- Tactical votes: Tactical voting (Labour voters backing Greens to block Reform, and vice versa) remains a critical uncertainty.
- Turnout: By-election turnout is typically lower than general elections and could magnify local mobilisation efforts.
With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, this by-election could be one of the most uncertain parliamentary contests in recent UK politics. Bookmakers currently favour the Green Party, with Reform UK and Labour trailing at longer odds, and constituency polling shows frequent ties or narrow leads without a clear dominant party.
The result may well depend on voter mobilisation and how undecided voters break on polling day.
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