Count Binface is 9/2 to spring one of the biggest political upsets in recent memory by defeating Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in the upcoming Clacton by-election.
Farage remains bet365’s overwhelming favourite at 1/7 to retain the Essex seat he voluntarily vacated, but the absence of candidates from Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and other major parties has transformed the contest into one of the most unusual betting markets British politics has seen.
The by-election was triggered after Farage resigned as MP for Clacton, only to then immediately announce he would seek re-election, describing the contest as a chance for voters to deliver a verdict on the allegations surrounding his financial affairs, which he strongly denies.
His decision has prompted fierce criticism from political opponents, who have branded the contest an unnecessary political stunt, and rather than legitimise the vote, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have all opted not to field candidates.
Party leaders argue that Farage has manufactured the by-election for political purposes and have refused to commit campaign resources to a contest they believe serves only Reform UK's narrative.
That boycott has left Count Binface as the highest-profile challenger in the field. The perennial novelty candidate, known for blending absurd campaign pledges with satirical commentary, has never come close to winning a parliamentary seat, but now finds himself at the centre of one of the year's most talked-about political betting markets.
While Farage is still expected to secure victory comfortably, Count Binface's shortened odds reflect the unique circumstances surrounding the race. With no major opposition parties standing, protest votes that would ordinarily be split between Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens could instead consolidate behind the novelty candidate.
Latest Clacton by-election Odds
1/7 Nigel Farage
9/2 Count Binface
* Odds correct at 11:16 BST on 9/7/2026