Brazil heads to the polls on October 4 with Flavio Bolsonaro now the narrow favourite in 1xBet’s presidential election winner market.
The Liberal senator is priced at 1.73, compared with 2.00 for President Lula to remain in power, making this a considerably closer contest than the first-round polling lead alone might suggest.
Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible to stand having been incarcerated. Lula, meanwhile, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term as president.
A survey published on 23 September put Lula on 45.8% in a first-round scenario and Bolsonaro on 43.4%. Its simulated runoff was tighter still: 47.7% for Lula and 47.4% for Bolsonaro, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.
Renan Santos polled at 4.5% in the first-round scenario.
If no candidate secures more than half of valid votes on 4 October, the top two will meet in a runoff on 25 October.
Latest Brazil Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Decimal odds | Raw implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Renan Santos | 26.00 | 3.8% |
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Brazilian Presidential Election Leading Candidates
Flavio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate. As the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, he is carrying the right-wing challenge to Lula while his father remains barred from seeking office.
His 1.73 price makes him 1xBet’s favourite to win the presidency, but it does not mean he leads the first-round polls.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg placed him 2.4 points behind Lula in its latest cited first-round scenario, while finding the pair statistically tied in a hypothetical runoff.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Lula is the sitting president and is seeking a fourth non-consecutive mandate. He launched his re-election bid at the Workers’ Party convention in August, presenting himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty amid pressure from the United States.
At 2.00 with 1xBet, Lula is a close second in the winner market despite leading the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg first-round survey.
That distinction matters - finishing ahead on 4 October would not settle the presidency if neither candidate crosses the threshold for an outright victory.
Renan Santos
Renan Santos is a distant outsider in the outright winner market at 26.00 with 1xBet.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg gave him 4.5% in its first-round scenario, well behind Lula and Bolsonaro. He is 26.00 odds to win the election with a shock result.