NASA's Artemis II is being given a one in three chance of launching as planned on February 7, 2026, on its schedule departure to orbit the moon.
The mission rolled out to the pad on January 18, 2026, with a simulated launch test planned and and ultimate launch no earlier than February 6.
Will the Artemis II depart on February 7? Will it explode on launch? Or will the launch be pushed back? Polymarket are ramping up interest with a number of markets available.
It is a 37% chance that the rocket launched on or before February 7, but much more likely to be before the end of February (78%) or March (83%).
An interesting alternative market is rating an explosion on launch as a 16% chance of happening, whenever Artemis II does eventually depart for the lunar exploration.
| Launch Date (on or before) | Yes Odds |
|---|---|
| February 7 | 37% |
| February 28 | 78% |
| March 31 | 83% |
| Artemis II Explodes? | 16% |
Polymarket's main market resolves "Yes" if Artemis II lifts off by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, verified via NASA video. Post-lift-off issues like explosions do not count against it. The Explosion market will pay out independently of launch time.
NASA Artemis II Launch Timeline
Artemis II marks NASA's first crewed lunar mission since Apollo 17, and will send four astronauts - Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen - on a 10-day free-return flyby around the Moon aboard the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft.
The crew entered quarantine around January 25, a standard pre-launch step, while the rocket stacking completed in October 2025 after heat shield and life support fixes from Artemis I.
Launch windows open February 5-11 from Kennedy Space Center's LC-39B, with February 7 targeted at 2:41 AM UTC.
NASA completed rocket rollout and is fueling for a dress rehearsal countdown around February 2, with final go/no-go after that.
Preparations are on track or ahead, including Orion water system tweaks. No major red flags have been reported as of late January 2026.
SLS Block 1 is uncrewed-tested via Artemis I (successful November 2022), with no pad explosions in its history, unlike Shuttle-era issues like Challenger's O-ring failure.
Recent concerns focused on Orion's heat shield charring, which were addressed via trajectory tweaks - not replacement, and minor valve replacements, but NASA deems crew safety margins sufficient.