World Cup Outright Winner Video Preview: Is This Finally England’s Year?
The World Cup is almost here, and the outright winner market is wide open.
The expanded format has changed the shape of the tournament, but the same question remains: who can actually go all the way?
England, Spain and Argentina look like the clearest outright contenders.
England may finally have the right blend of players, coach and timing. Spain have the tournament pedigree and technical quality. Argentina still have champion status, even if repeating the feat looks difficult.
For value, Norway are the team to watch - they may not be favourites, but they have enough quality to make a serious run.
The New World Cup Format
The move to 48 teams has changed the feel of the tournament.
More nations now have a chance to experience the World Cup, which is huge for countries making rare or first appearances. But the expansion also raises questions over quality, group-stage jeopardy and whether the drama of the old 32-team format has been diluted.
The biggest concern is third-place qualification. When teams know they may not need to win to progress, it can create more cautious football.
Still, football fans often resist change before eventually adapting. The format will only truly be judged once the tournament starts.
England’s Best Chance?
England look like one of the strongest contenders.
They have elite players, tournament experience and a manager in Thomas Tuchel who understands knockout football. The challenge is not talent, but balance.
England have had gifted squads before and still fallen short. The key question is whether Tuchel can build the right system rather than simply trying to fit every star name into the same team.
Harry Kane’s form could also be decisive. If he carries his club form into the tournament, England have a genuine chance.
The Main Challengers
Spain deserve serious respect.
They already have the experience of winning a major international tournament and possess one of the most technically gifted squads in the competition. The only concern is whether they have enough of a pure goalscorer to finish the chances their creative players produce.
Argentina remain dangerous as defending champions, but retaining a World Cup is extremely difficult. With Lionel Messi now deeper into the final stage of his career, this may be one tournament too far.
Brazil are always a team nobody wants to face, but this does not feel like one of their vintage sides. They remain dangerous, but not terrifying.
France and Germany are harder to trust. France always have talent, but there are doubts around their current level, while Germany continue to flatter to deceive.
Best Outsider to Watch
Norway are the standout outsider.
With Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, they have two elite-level players who can decide matches. They also have a strong collective identity, helped by the influence of Bodo/Glimt players.
Calling them a dark horse almost feels unfair. They look more like a dangerous outsider capable of reaching the latter stages if the draw opens up.