UEFA Nations League Predictions - Betting Tips for 1 October 2026
The international break continues on Thursday with another stacked UEFA Nations League schedule featuring Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands and Erling Haaland's Norway.
Portugal face a difficult trip to Denmark, Greece look to continue their surprise start against the Netherlands and Germany desperately need a response after a rocky opening to the competition.
We've picked out five games before finishing with two big-priced Norway selections in Longshot Corner.
Here are our UEFA Nations League predictions and betting tips for Thursday.
Denmark v Portugal - Back a Tight Contest
Denmark's home record makes this one of Thursday's toughest games to call because the Danes are unbeaten in 17 of their last 18 competitive home matches, while Portugal have lost just once across their last 12 Nations League games.
There are also questions surrounding Portugal's team selection. Cristiano Ronaldo didn't feature in their previous game, while Bruno Fernandes missed the match and his availability could have a major influence here.
The FreeTips prediction is a draw, with 1-1 available at around 7.00 when discussed on the show.
Pick: Draw
Correct Score Lean: 1-1 @ 7.00
Greece v Netherlands - Dutch Attack Should Be Too Strong
Greece have made a dream start with two wins from two, including their victory over Germany but the manner of that Germany win gives us some reason for caution. Greece had just 24% possession and scored the winner on the counter-attack.
That approach could be difficult to repeat against a Netherlands side creating chances in huge numbers. The Dutch have generated almost six expected goals and 47 shots across their opening two games.
Mexx Meerdink is also in excellent form, scoring three goals across his last three appearances.
Pick: Netherlands to Win
Player Pick: Mexx Meerdink Anytime Goalscorer
Germany v Serbia - Time for a Response
Germany have made a disappointing start under Jürgen Klopp and desperately need a performance, so we're not ready to abandon them yet.
The underlying fundamentals remain encouraging and Serbia's defensive problems provide Germany with an opportunity to rebuild some confidence.
Serbia have conceded multiple goals in both of their Nations League games so far, while Germany have still been controlling possession and creating opportunities despite the disappointing results.
The FreeTips selection targets that defensive vulnerability rather than simply taking the match result.
Pick: Germany to Score in Both Halves
Wales v Norway - Back Haaland and Norway
This looks like one of the clearest mismatches on Thursday's schedule given Wales have lost their opening two Nations League matches and are yet to score. Their lack of chance creation arguably an even bigger concern than the results themselves.
Norway lost to Portugal last time out but reached the World Cup quarter-finals and possess significantly more attacking quality. The one concern is Norway's defence after conceding twice against both Denmark and Portugal.
FreeTips likes Norway to Win & Both Teams to Score, but we're slightly more interested in Norway shutting Wales out completely.
And with Erling Haaland leading the attack, there's obvious potential for this game to get away from Wales if Norway score early.
Pick: Norway to Win
Alternative Pick: Norway to Win to Nil
Republic of Ireland v Austria - Injuries Could Make the Difference
This is probably the most difficult game on Thursday's card given Austria arrive in good form, but injuries and suspensions could significantly change the matchup.
David Alaba and Marcel Sabitzer are among the injury concerns discussed on the show, while defender Kevin Danso is suspended. Ireland, meanwhile, are unbeaten across their last nine home matches and could be well placed to capitalise.
Neither side makes enormous appeal in the straight match market, but Ireland's home record combined with Austria's absences pushes us towards the hosts.
Pick: Republic of Ireland Draw No Bet
Longshot Corner - Haaland to Punish Wales
Both of this week's longshots come from Cardiff.
The thinking is straightforward - if Norway score early, Wales could find themselves chasing a game against a side that won't necessarily be interested in sitting back.
Our first selection is Norway to win 3-0 with Erling Haaland scoring at least twice, which was available at approximately 25.00 when discussed on the show.
But there's an even bigger price available for a slightly lower-scoring game.
Norway to win exactly 2-0 with Haaland scoring both goals was priced at around 41.00 and given Wales' attacking struggles and Haaland's ability to take over a game, both make interesting high-risk options.
Longshot: Norway 3-0 & Haaland 2+ Goals @ 25.00
Longshot: Norway 2-0 & Haaland to Score Both @ 41.00
Our UEFA Nations League Thursday Picks
- Denmark v Portugal: Draw
- Denmark v Portugal: 1-1 Correct Score @ 7.00
- Greece v Netherlands: Netherlands to Win
- Greece v Netherlands: Mexx Meerdink Anytime Goalscorer
- Germany v Serbia: Germany to Score in Both Halves
- Wales v Norway: Norway to Win
- Wales v Norway: Norway to Win to Nil
- Republic of Ireland v Austria: Ireland Draw No Bet
- Longshot: Norway 3-0 & Haaland 2+ Goals @ 25.00
- Longshot: Norway 2-0 & Haaland to Score Both @ 41.00
Watch the full Free Tips Football preview above for Ryan and Jeremy's reasoning behind the selections and their latest attempts to land a big-priced winner in Longshot Corner.
For more UEFA Nations League predictions, betting tips and individual match previews, head to FreeTips Football Hub for completely free football analysis throughout the international break.
Odds quoted were those discussed at the time of recording and may change. Please gamble responsibly.