Tigres vs Toluca Predictions & Tips - Hosts Backed to Hold Liga MX Leaders

The hosts have struggled this season, but a strong home record points to a likely competitive contest this weekend.

Tigres double chance is my best bet in a likely low-scoring encounter.

Tigres and Toluca have met on 20 occasions in competitive fixtures since 2020. Toluca won nine games while Tigres secured seven victories. 

Home advantage usually proves crucial in this fixture. Only one of seventeen previous encounters was won by the designated home team.

Tigres return to Estadio Universitario after a hard-fought 1-0 victory against Puebla in their last Liga MX outing in September. 

Juan Brunetta converted a penalty nine minutes after half-time as the hosts broke a four-match winless league run.

Tigres deserved the points, with final match stats reflecting their attacking intent. The hosts had 13 efforts to Puebla's ten and finished with a higher xG (2.05 to 0.42).

Before that victory, Victor Vucetich's side lost 2-0 at Juarez after back-to-back draws against Santos Laguna, Necaxa and Monterrey.

Goals have been hard to come by. Tigres scored just twice across those five fixtures, although they have improved defensively with three clean sheets in that period. 

Low-scoring outcomes have been frequent for the home side. An average of 1.4 goals per game were scored in their last ten encounters.

Vucetich's side now sit 15th in the Apertura with ten points from ten matches. All four defeats came on their travels, with Tigres remaining unbeaten in four home fixtures (W2, D2). 

Toluca travel to Monterrey after an entertaining 3-3 draw against Cruz Azul in their last Liga MX fixture two weeks ago.

Antonio Mohamed's side trailed 2-0 at the interval before Helinho's penalty, and an Alexis Vega double put the visitors ahead. Gabriel Fernandez's stoppage-time strike denied the Diablos Rojos a superb comeback victory.

A point was a fair outcome, with final match stats reflecting an evenly balanced contest. Toluca edged the shot count (18-17) and finished with a slightly higher xG (1.78 to 1.63).

Before that thrilling draw, Toluca had slipped to a disappointing 3-2 home defeat against Santos Laguna. Toluca threw away a two-goal lead in that painful reversal. 

Despite dropping five points in their last two games, Mohamed's men remain top of the Apertura with 20 points from ten fixtures. 

Past trips to the Estadio Universitario (UANL) have been difficult for Toluca. The visitors won just one of 11 away encounters against Tigres since 2018.

Tigres: (4-2-3-1) Nahuel Guzman; Alan Franco, Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva, Rafael Guerrero, Mauro Lainez; Diego Sanchez, Fernando Gorriaran; Ozziel Herrera, Juan Pablo Vigon, Juan Brunetta; Guillermo Martinez.

Vucetich could retain much of the side that beat Puebla two weeks ago.

Cesar Araujo and Diego Lainez are pushing for recalls after coming off the bench in that victory.

On the injury front, the visitors have a handful of potential absentees. Jesus Angulo and Francisco Reyes remain sidelined with knee and Achilles injuries, respectively. 

Marcelo Flores is also set to miss out while Osvaldo Rodriguez and Marco Farfan will be assessed ahead of Friday's Liga MX fixture.

Toluca: (4-2-3-1) Luis Garcia; Diego Barbosa, Bruno Mendez, Luan Garcia Teixeira, Brian Garcia; Nicolas Castro, Federico Pereira; Helinho, Pavel Perez, Alexis Vega; Paulinho.

Head coach Mohamed has some injury issues this weekend. Marcel Ruiz remains sidelined with a knee injury, while Ivan Lopez is also expected to remain sidelined.

Franco Romero and Hugo Gonzalez have returned to training but may have to settle for places on the bench.