Sweden vs Poland Predictions
Graham Potter's side are favourites, but their defensive vulnerability remains a concern, with clean sheets hard to come by.
BTTS is my best bet, while I also have a stake on over 2.5 goals.
Goals Likely on Monday
- Sweden have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 11 matches
- Sweden have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches
- Sweden have seen BTTS & over 4.5 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches against Poland
- Poland have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches (competitive fixtures)
- Poland have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (competitive fixtures)
Sweden Edge Recent H2H Record
Sweden and Poland have met on three occasions since 2021. Sweden claimed 3-2 wins at the Euros in 2021 and in their World Cup play-off in March this year.
Poland picked up a 2-0 home win in a World Cup qualifier four years ago.
Sweden Build on Winning Start
Sweden face back-to-back Nations League home fixtures after a hard-fought 2-1 win against Romania on Friday.
Alexander Isak opened the scoring in the 20th minute before Dennis Man equalised just nine minutes later. Viktor Gyokeres' strike before half-time proved decisive as the Swedes kicked off their campaign with victory in Solna.
In a competitive contest, the Swedes just about deserved their victory. The hosts restricted the visitors to an xG of 0.52 while scoring twice from an xG total of 0.83.
While Sweden boast serious firepower in the forward areas, defensive vulnerabilities remain the biggest issue for Potter’s side. The Swedes failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 16 matches. BTTS landed in 12 of those games
High-scoring outcomes have also been frequent. An average of exactly four goals per game were scored in their last 11 contests.
Despite some better performances under the former Brighton boss, the Swedes have struggled to maintain consistency this year. The Blue and Yellow won four but lost three of their nine international fixtures.
Poland Held in Warsaw
Poland travel to Solna after a frustrating 0-0 draw with Bosnia in Warsaw on Friday.
In a fairly even contest, the Eagles had the better of the chances, but were unable to break down a stubborn Bosnian defence.
Final match stats reflected both teams’ lack of cutting edge. Poland edged the shot count (14-9), but both sides finished with an xG below 1.0 (0.73-0.31).
The Poles now travel to Sweden winless in their last four matches.
Jan Urban’s side lost 2-0 to Ukraine and drew 2-2 with Nigeria in June, following a painful 3-2 World Cup play-off defeat against Sweden in March.
Despite their lack of form, recent fixtures have been competitive and entertaining. Before the goalless draw against Bosnia, four of five previous matches finished with BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored.
Three of those games also saw at least four goals scored.
Sweden vs Poland Squads & Team News
Sweden Squad
Goalkeepers: Noel Tornqvist, Viktor Johansson, Melker Ellborg
Defenders: John Mellberg, Victor Lindelof, Elliot Stroud, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Daniel Svensson, Hjalmar Ekdal, Carl Starfelt, Hampus Skoglund, Gustaf Lagerbielke
Midfielders: Lucas Bergvall, Patrik Walemark, Williot Swedberg, Jesper Karlstrom, Yasin Ayari, Sebastian Nanasi, Hugo Larsson, Alexander Bernhardsson, Besfort Zeneli
Forwards: Alexander Isak, Benjamin Nygren, Viktor Gyokeres, Paulos Abraham
Head coach Potter is expected to make at least one change to his first XI. Emil Holm was carried off with a hamstring problem and is not expected to feature.
Daniel Svensson is likely to deputise in the Swedish defence.
Anthony Elanga, Isak Hien and Jacob Widell Zetterstrom are further notable injury absentees, while Gustaf Nilsson, Mattias Svanberg and Taha Ali were forced to withdraw from the original squad selection.
Premier League forwards Isak and Gyokeres both scored against Romania and should again lead Sweden's attack.
Potter hinted his side would rely heavily on Liverpool forward Alexander Isak with three fixtures still to play in the Nations League break.
“It’s not about rotating for the sake of rotating, as we want to win the games and try to play with our strongest team in every game.
“Alex has played a lot of games lately, is in a good place and as I know him he wants to start games, but we need to see how everyone is, how they react and recover. Can Isak start every game? Potentially yes, but there’s no chance (that he’ll) play all the minutes.”
Poland Squad
Goalkeepers: Marcin Bulka, Mateusz Kochalski, Slawomir Abramowicz
Defenders: Matty Cash, Przemyslaw Wisniewski, Tomasz Kedziora, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Kacper Potulski, Norbert Wojtuszek, Wojciech Monka
Midfielders: Bartosz Slisz, Kacper Urbanski, Piotr Zielinski, Wiktor Nowak, Michal Skoras, Marcel Regula, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Sebastian Szymanski, Nicola Zalewski, Oskar Pietuszewski
Forwards: Robert Lewandowski, Karol Swiderski, Mateusz Zukowski
Polish boss Urban is likely to make some changes to his first XI this week. Jakub Kaminski limped out of Friday’s draw against Bosnia and is unlikely to feature this week.
Nicola Zalewski is set to return to the side after replacing Kaminski after just 24 minutes.
Kamil Grabara, Adrian Benedyczak and Filip Rozga are unavailable after withdrawing from the squad.
Bartlomiej Dragowski and Marcel Regula have been added to the original selection.