North Melbourne vs Geelong Cats Verdict
Geelong still have their eye set on the top four and they can maintain in the race by dispatching North Melbourne. The Cats are win adrift on the top four but should account for the Kangaroos comfortably and cover the -23.5 line.
- Geelong have won the past 16 between the two sides by an average of 49 points.
- North Melbourne are 0-7 against top-seven sides in 2026, losing those matches by an average of 47 points.
- Oliver Henry has kicked 11 goals in his past three matches.
- Bailey Smith is averaging 32 disposals in his past six matches.
Head to Head Stats
Geelong have won the past 16 matches between the two sides by an average margin of 49 points. They were 49-point winners in the Round 8 match at GMHBA Stadium earlier this year.
In the most recent meeting at Marvel Stadium, they did the job by 101 points, and the Cats have averaged 131 points per game in their past seven against the Kangaroos.
North Melbourne Form
North Melbourne snapped a five-match losing streak with their 23-point win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend.
They had been competitive in a number of those five losses and were not without their chances before finally putting it all together last weekend by responding when challenged.
Paul Curtis was instrumental with four goals and Luke Davies-Uniacke produced 31 disposals and two goals, while a host of others found plenty of the footy, including Luke Parker (26 disposals and a goal) and Colby McKercher (30 disposals).
The Kangaroos have made some improvements defensively and, after regularly conceding 100+ totals mid-season, they have given up an average of 79.5 points per game in their past eight. The total points in their past five matches at Marvel Stadium have averaged a tick over 160.
Geelong Cats Form
Geelong have won their past four matches and come off a 67-point win over Essendon at GMHBA Stadium last weekend.
The Cats are knocking on the door of the top six with a 13-8 win-loss record, just one game behind fourth to sixth-placed Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Against Essendon, Oliver Dempsey and Oliver Henry both kicked four goals, while Bailey Smith racked up another 38 disposals.
Smith has had 28+ in his past six at an average of 32 per game. Henry has kicked 11 goals in his past three matches, while Shannon Neale has kicked 10 in his past three.
Away from GMHBA Stadium in 2026, Geelong have a 5-7 win-loss record. They are yet to play at Marvel Stadium in 2026 and have lost three of their past four at the venue but were 101-point winners over the Roos in the most recent of those.
North Melbourne vs Geelong Team News
North Melbourne's Aidan Corr missed the entire second half against the Bulldogs with a back spasm but is a chance to play.
George Wardlaw successfully returned from his hamstring injury and was influential with 19 disposals and a goal on managed minutes in the same match.
Callum Coleman-Jones and Luke McDonald are edging closer towards returning from injury.
Geelong came through their 67-point win over Essendon without any new injuries, although Gryan Miers caused a scare when he hurt his knee during the second quarter.
Miers, who is playing with a partially torn ACL, was assessed by the medical team before returning to play out the match and is expected to be available.
The Cats were without Jeremy Cameron, Max Holmes and Patrick Dangerfield against Essendon, while Tom Atkins is progressing well in his recovery and is considered likely to return before the finals after stepping up his work on the training track.