Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn AFL Qualifying Final Verdict
Hawthorn finished fourth on the ladder after the home-and-away season and face the road trip to Perth to face minor premiers Fremantle as a result. The Hawks have been given a +16.5 start on the line and I think they can stay within that.
- The past three matches between the two sides have been decided by 15 points or less with two of those held at Optus Stadium.
- Hawthorn have won their past two interstate finals.
- Jai Newcombe has averaged 29 disposals in the five finals matches he has played.
- Jye Amiss has booted 19 goals in his past five matches.
Head to Head Stats
Fremantle have won the past two matches between the two sides, taking out the Round 9 match this season at Optus Stadium by 15 points, as well as the Round 18 clash last year at the venue by 13.
Hawthorn led at three-quarter time in both of those matches before conceding late goals.
Fremantle Dockers Form
Fremantle finished on top of the ladder to claim the minor premiership and earned home-ground advantage for the Qualifying Final.
The Dockers wrapped up top spot with a 24-point win over Adelaide in Round 23 and have been particularly difficult to beat at Optus Stadium.
Their Round 21 win over the Western Bulldogs was another example of their ability to grind down opposition at the venue, kicking seven goals to one after half-time in a 37-point victory.
The Dockers have not been flawless heading into September, losing to Melbourne in Round 22 before suffering a 37-point defeat against Carlton in the final round. There were mitigating circumstances against the Blues, with several regulars rested and game time managed.
Hawthorn Form
Hawthorn finished 4th on the ladder to secure a double chance and enter the finals after a 62-point win over West Coast at Optus Stadium.
The Hawks were dominant early, opening a 47-point lead during the second quarter before wet conditions made their percentage chase more difficult.
Their form across the final month has been mixed, but they have shown an ability to respond when challenged.
Hawthorn suffered a heavy 67-point defeat against Brisbane in Round 22 before producing a much stronger performance against Collingwood, coming from 22 points down at half-time to secure their second draw against the Magpies this season.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Team News
Fremantle will regain Jye Amiss after he was managed in Round 24, while Murphy Reid is also expected to return after recovering from a groin issue.
Brennan Cox is set to miss the Qualifying Final after suffering a calf injury against Carlton, with Oscar McDonald an option to move back into defence.
Hawthorn have close to a full list available for the trip to Perth. Jack Ginnivan missed Round 24 with a back issue but is expected to return for the Qualifying Final, while Nick Watson was managed out of the final quarter against West Coast and has been cleared to play.
Jai Newcombe also played on after being assessed following a heavy tackle.