Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons Verdict
It will be an emotional Big Freeze clash on the King's Birthday Monday AFL fixture following the death of former Melbourne coach and MND campaigner Neale Daniher. I expect the sides to put on a real show with a close one predicted.
I'm backing the margin staying inside 15.5 points for either side with Collingwood backed given their record in this fixture.
- Five of the past seven matches between the two sides have been decided by seven points or less.
- Collingwood have won the past five against Melbourne.
- Kozzie Pickett has kicked 2+ goals in each of his past four matches against Collingwood.
- Jordan De Goey is averaging 28.5 disposals in the past four rounds and has had 25+ in two of his past three against Melbourne.
Head to Head Stats
Collingwood have won the past five against Melbourne, including the corresponding match last season by a point, before getting up by six in Round 24. Five of the past seven matches between the two sides have been decided by seven points or less.
Collingwood Magpies Form - Pies Drop Three Of Last Four
Collingwood come in with a 5-6-1 win/loss/draw record. Since splitting their Round 8 fixture against Hawthorn at 93 apiece, they have lost three of four with their only win in that period a 10-point margin against West Coast.
Last weekend they left their run too late at Marvel Stadium when going down to the Bulldogs by four points. That came despite the work of Nick Daicos (37 disposals and a goal), Scott Pendlebury (33 disposals) and Jordan De Goey (30 disposals and one goal).
There were encouraging signs late in that match, with Collingwood winning clearances and controlling territory in the final quarter. Their pressure game remains one of the strongest in the competition and they continue to generate scores from forward-half turnovers.
With some injury carnage a fortnight ago when losing Jamie Elliott and Darcy Moore, Tim Membrey and Lachie Schultz chimed in with five goals between them, but the question remains about the Magpies' depth and their reliance on the big names such as Daicos.
He has had 30+ disposals in all but two matches this season and had 29 and 28 in those. De Goey is averaging 28.5 disposals in the past four rounds.
Melbourne Demons Form - Two-Game Losing Streak
Melbourne remain firmly in the finals mix with a 7-5 record despite dropping their past two matches, with those coming against the Western Bulldogs in Round 11 by three points before going down to GWS by 49 in Alice Springs last weekend.
That was their biggest loss of the season but the margin did not quite reflect the closeness of the match, with the Demons leading the inside 50 count 62-46 while also generating more scoring shots in the 9.16 (70) to 19.5 (119) scoreline.
The Demons rank fifth in the AFL for scoring and fourth for inside 50s this season, highlighting their ability to create opportunities. Their challenge has been maximising those chances when games tighten up.
Brody Mihocek returned to the side with three goals, while Max Gawn and Jack Steele were other major contributors. Steele has had 25+ disposals in three of his past four matches, while Gawn continues to be a force in the ruck.
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Dan McStay suffered a facial injury in the narrow loss to the Bulldogs but is expected to be okay. Harry Perryman is edging closer to a return from a hamstring injury, while Jack Buller will be considered after booting three goals in the VFL.
Melbourne Demons Team News
Harrison Petty injured his foot in the loss to GWS and will be assessed during the week. Changkuoth Jiath was managed and will be available. Jake Lever and Aidan Johnson may be available to return, pending clearances at training during the week.