Brownlow Medal Betting Tips 2025 – Exotic Options, Top 5, Club Leaders & Value

Here is a guide to the major contenders, as well as our top four plays for the big night. 

Nick Daicos, Bailey Smith, Jordan Dawson and Gold Coast’s duo of Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell dominate the betting and are all under the $10 in most markets before a jump to $51 for the likes of Caleb Serong and Matt Rowell. Daicos will be hard to topple after polling 38 votes last season while Smith ranks #1 in both coaches votes and disposals across the league. Adelaide’s captain Jordan Dawson brings plenty of polish, while it is hard to split Anderson and Rowell. Exotic bet options bring plenty of outsiders into play for a top five finish, most club votes as well as pick fours. 

Serong’s numbers scream Brownlow votes: #2 in contested possessions, #1 in centre clearances, #4 in first possessions and ground ball gets. He’s Fremantle’s midfield barometer, and while his teammate, Andrew Brayshaw has had his moments, Serong’s inside craft and ability to control stoppages should see him pull clear. Around 25 votes makes him a live top-five chance.

Few finish seasons like Bont. His reputation as a strong closer is well-earned, often storming home in the back half of the year. His dual midfield-forward impact, scoreboard influence and the Bulldogs’ late-season surge create perfect conditions for 2s and 3s. While unlikely to win overall, he looms as a top 10 lock and a key player for exotic bets like “most votes R17–24”.

Neale is the forgotten man of the market but remains one of the AFL’s elite vote-getters. Already a Brownlow winner and multiple runner-up, he continues to bank 30+ disposal, 10+ contested games. Sitting in the 17–23 vote range, and with Brisbane’s strong season keeping him front of mind for umpires, he remains a genuine chance to outpoll Hugh McCluggage despite the market disparity. Neale has long been a proven vote magnet, already a Brownlow winner and multiple runner-up, while McCluggage, for all his polish and class, has historically struggled to convert standout games into votes. Neale’s contested work gives him the edge, consistently ranking high for first possessions, clearances and contested possessions — the stats umpires tend to reward most heavily. In Brisbane’s biggest wins, Neale is the one racking up 30+ disposals with double-digit contested numbers, performances that catch the umpire’s eye far more than McCluggage’s outside spread. 

For punters chasing value, the boxed top 4 option is a juicy play at $51 with betR. Bailey Smith brings elite coaches’ votes and disposal numbers, while Caleb Serong owns the contested and clearance stats that historically decide Brownlows. Matt Rowell has surged into contention with his grunt game — ranking top three in contested possessions and centre clearances — while Nick Daicos remains the proven vote magnet after his 38-vote season in 2024. Together, this quartet combines inside dominance, outside polish, and proven umpire appeal, making the boxed option a live exotic with serious upside.