Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers Verdict
Essendon Bombers have been given a huge 62.5 handicap line and that underlines the gulf in class.
This is expected to be a blowout and I'm happy to play the disposals markets for key Brisbane Lions men Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale for 30+, Levi Ashcroft upwards of 20 and Kai Lohmann for multiple goals.
- Essendon have conceded an average of 285 uncontested disposals in the past five rounds.
- Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in each of his past three matches.
- Lachie Neale has averaged 32 disposals in his past four matches against the Bombers.
- Kai Lohmann comes off five goals and has kicked 10 in his past three against the Bombers.
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane have won the past four between the two sides by an average margin of 33 points. Three of those were at the GABBA.
Brisbane Lions Form - Top Four Contenders
Brisbane come into Round 18 sitting firmly in the top-four race with a 10-6 record and have rediscovered the form that made them premiership favourites earlier in the season.
After a brief mid-season slump, the Lions have now won four consecutive matches, including statement victories over fellow finalists Sydney and Geelong.
Their 22-point win over the Cats at GMHBA Stadium showcased Brisbane at its damaging best. An explosive eight-goal opening quarter laid the foundation before the Lions responded every time Geelong threatened.
The Lions continue to fire in attack. Kai Lohmann booted five goals against Geelong, Logan Morris added three to make it 16 goals across his past four matches, while Zac Bailey also kicked three and has now booted multiple goals in each of his past three outings.
Essendon Bombers Form - Wooden Spoonists?
Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder. They parted ways with Brad Scott last month and have lost five matches in a row under Dean Solomon, with the most recent of those coming against St Kilda by 67 points.
The Bombers managed just 50 points in that defeat and are averaging only 57 points across their past five matches. Their defensive issues continue to be exposed, with opposition sides repeatedly finding uncontested possession and moving the ball with ease.
Essendon have conceded more disposals than any team in the AFL this season and continue to struggle to contain opposition midfields.
Zach Merrett battled hard again with 28 disposals against the Saints and has now collected 25 or more in eight of his past nine matches. Nate Caddy remains one of the few positives, kicking three goals last week and at least two in eight of his past 10 appearances.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Chris Fagan receives a significant boost with the return of former captain Dayne Zorko and star midfielder Hugh McCluggage. Keidean Coleman also returns as the Lions welcome back several experienced players, while Darcy Gardiner is sidelined through injury.
Essendon Bombers Team News
The Bombers will be without Jordan Ridley after the defender was managed, while Will Setterfield has been omitted.
Aaron Roberts, Archer Clarke, Harrison Jones, Max Kondogiannis and Liam Blakiston all come into the squad as Essendon looks to finish the round strongly against the ladder leaders.